Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

How High Interest Rates Affect the Manufacturing Industry

Tuesday, February 20th, 2024

Rising interest rates have been making frequent headlines since they started rising in 2022 when inflation reached the historic level of 8% for a sustained period of time.  When inflation rates rise substantially, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates as part of their aggressive monetary policy to bring it down.

The effect on manufacturing is serious because manufacturing is an asset-driven industry sector, and assets are expensive. It is necessary for manufacturing companies to finance the cost of new machinery, equipment, vehicles, and infrastructure.  As interest rates rise, the cost of financing grows higher, which means manufacturers end up paying significantly more to expand operations.

This creates a dilemma for manufacturers: They must either spend more to borrow or spend more to maintain assets beyond their original life expectancy. This is an added expense for the industry when they are already facing significant increases in material prices. It also comes at a time when manufacturers are being pressured by the market to implement Industry 4.0 technologies, such as sensors, automation, robotics, new ERP software, and AI, all of which require capital expenditures.

The inflation of the past couple of years was mainly caused by supply chain shortages and disruptions due to the COVID pandemic shutdowns.  Once the supply chain recovered, the supply of goods would have increased, reducing inflation.  Instead, the Fed raised interest rates, causing business contraction and less consumer spending.

I’ve never been able to understand the rationale for raising interest rate to reduce inflation. Raising interest rates only adds to the cost of doing business, reduces capital expenditures and investment by companies, and reduces consumer spending.  Reducing industrial and consumer spending causes businesses to contract, which leads to layoffs. Layoffs cause less consumer spending leading to more business contraction.  It becomes a vicious cycle.

Confirming my opinion about the negative effect of high interest rates, the August 28, 2023 article by Matthew Fox in Business Insider titled “’Interest rates are killing our industry’: Here’s what businesses are saying about the Fed’s impact on the economy” states:

“’High interest rates are affecting industrial production like never before… interest rates have placed an inverted incentive to grow due to a major slowdown in capital equipment expenditures. This is the time to stop raising interest rates,’ one survey respondent in the computer and electronic product manufacturing industry said.”

“For the first time in a long time, we are seeing customers reduce or cancel orders due to softening end-use demand. We expect this trend to continue over the next few months” and “Customer orders came to a sudden halt. The overall volume dropped 51% year-over-year.”

“A respondent from that sector [machinery manufacturing industry] said, “The phone is not ringing. Our sales team is working harder with less results. Projects are being postponed and, perhaps even more telling, payments are increasingly protracted.”

The latest press release from The Association For Manufacturing Technology (AMT) reported:  “Orders in 2023 totaled $4.94 billion, 11.2% behind the $5.56 billion recorded in 2022… Contract machine shops decreased their 2023 orders just over 21% compared to 2022… aerospace sector’s 2023 orders decreased nearly 9% from 2022.”

My sales agency, ElectroFab Sales represents small American manufacturers that perform fabrication services for Original Equipment Manufacturers in a variety of industries in southern California, and I can confirm that business started contracting significantly in the third quarter of last year and hasn’t rebounded so far this year.

We’ve also had significant layoffs in the past two years. The February 12, 2024 article in TechCrunch reports “The final total of layoffs for 2023 ended up being 262,735, according to Layoffs.fyi. Tech layoffs conducted in 2023 were 59% higher than 2022’s total, according to the data in the tracker. And 2024 is off to a rough start despite not reaching the peak of last year’s first quarter cutbacks.:

A review of Historical Data

The following chart shows the relationship between Fed rates and recessions (shaded vertical lines show recessions). 

While some of the recessions started after the Fed started to reduce rates from being high, there may be a lag time in the effect of high interest rates and the start of a recession.  When businesses have contracted significantly, it takes a period of time to turn the economy around towards expansion, depending on how significantly the economy has contracted.  I believe there is evidence to indicate that the longer the duration of high Fed rates, the longer the recession lasts.  The following chart shows the duration of the recessions:

People think that the “Roaring 20s” was a period of prosperity and expansion, but there were actually three recessions in the 1920s prior to the crash of the stock market in 1929, leading to the Great Depression that lasted 43 months, followed by a shorter recession of 13 months prior to the beginning of WW II.

The recession that began in the fall of 2008 was the longest lasting recession since the recession that began in 1981. The cause of the brief, two-month recession of 2020 was the shutdowns of non-essential manufacturing during the beginning of the COVID pandemic.   

Judging by the number of recessions since 1913, I don’t think that the monetary policies of the Fed have been successful in preventing “booms and busts.”  However, it has protected the banking industry from widespread bank failures.

We need to understand that contrary to what many people think, the Federal Reserve is not a government-owned national bank. The Federal Reserve was established by Congress in 1913 with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act. It was established to be the central bank of the U.S. “Its primary purpose is to enhance the stability of the American banking system. The Federal Reserve System is composed of a central, independent governmental agency, the Board of Governors, in Washington, D.C., and 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks located in major cities throughout the U.S…. The Fed introduced Federal Reserve notes, which became the predominant form of U.S. currency and legal tender.”

According to the website USA Facts, “The Fed is an independent body and is not tied to an administration or partisan agenda. The system has three key entities: The Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The Fed oversees five key functions. These five key functions laid out by the Fed are “…to conduct the nation’s monetary policy, promote the stability of the financial system, promote the soundness of financial institutions, facilitating US dollar transactions, and promoting consumer protection.

The president appoints the Board of Governors, pending Congressional confirmation. The Board of Governors is tasked with supervising the five functions, overseeing 12 Federal Reserve banks, and creating financial regulations.”

What is the Outlook for the Future?

On January 29, 2024, the article “When Will the Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?” by Preston Caldwell, on MorningStar, states “We expect the Fed to start cutting rates beginning with the March 2024 meeting. The Fed will pivot to monetary easing as inflation falls back to its 2% target and the need to shore up economic growth becomes a top concern…since July 2023, the Federal Reserve has kept the federal-funds rate at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, far above typical levels over the past decade. But we expect the Fed will begin cutting rates in March 2024—bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%–4.00% by the end of 2024.”

We can only hope that when the Fed does cut rates, it will not lead to a recession of equal time. The sooner that the Fed reduces its fund rates, the better. 

What is the State of the U.S. Economy?

Tuesday, December 12th, 2023

There are many different opinions on the state of the U.S. economy. This is normal when we are entering an election year.  The political party in power wants the economy to appear good or better than the previous administration, and the opposing political party wants it to appear worse than when they were in power.

Let’s examine what are the key economic indicators as well as other data to determine the true state of the U.S. economy.  According to the website, USA Facts, the key economic indicators are:  GDP, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rates, workers’ average hourly wages, unemployment rate, ratio of unemployed people related to job openings, labor force participation rate, trade deficit (imports vs. exports), and Federal debt. USA Facts only reports the figures at the end of the year so the data shown is for 2022 since 2023 hasn’t ended yet.

Gross Domestic Product 1970 – 2023

Labor Force Participation Rate

The rate is calculated as the labor force divided by the total working-age population. The working age population refers to people aged 15 to 64. This indicator is broken down by age group and it is measured as a percentage of each age group.

The labor force participation rate was 66.0% in 2008, and gradually dropped down to 63.3% by January 2020.  As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, it dropped to a low of 61.5% in November 2020 before gradually rising to 62.8% in November 2023.

Ratio of Unemployed People to Job Openings

According to the Bureau of Labor Standards, “The ratio of unemployed people to job openings ranged from 0.8 to 1.0 during 2018 and 2019. Over the past 5 years, the number of unemployed people per job opening reached a high of 4.9 in April 2020, when there were 23.1 million unemployed people and 4.7 million job openings. Since October 2021, the ratio has been 0.5 or 0.6 every month…When ratios equal 1.0, there is approximately 1 unemployed person per job opening. When less than 1.0, the labor market is tight, as job openings outnumber the unemployed. When greater than 1.0, there are more unemployed people than available jobs..”

The unemployment rate of the United States which has been steadily decreasing since the 2008 financial crisis, but spiked to 8.1 percent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual unemployment rate of the U.S. since 1990 can be found here.

Federal Fund Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times in 2022 and four times in 2023, increasing the target rate from nearly zero (0.25%) in 2020-2021 to 5.25%-5.50% currently. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady when they meet this month. The Fed rate affects the consumer interest rates for mortgages and installment loans for things like cards, home furnishings, and other consumer goods.  Mortgage rates have risen from 2.75-3.25 in 2021 to 6.0%-7.9% in 2023.  This has stagnated sales for homes and automobiles.

National average wage indexing series, 2001-2022

Year  Annual Wage YearAnnual Wage
2001$32,921.92 2012$44,321.67
2002$33,252.09 2013$44,888.16
2003$34,064.95 2014$46,481.52
2004$35,648.55 2015$48,098.63
2005$36,952.94 2016$48,642.15
2006$38,651.41 2017$50,321.89
2007$40,405.48 2018$52,145.80
2008$41,334.97 2019$54,099.99
2009$40,711.61 2020$55,628.60
2010$41,673.83 2021$60,575.07
2011$42,979.61 2022$63,795.13

Data source:  https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html

It looks like wages have nearly doubled in 21 years, but the value of the dollar has changed over time. According to the CPI Inflation Calculator, the ”U.S. dollar has lost 42% its value since 2001; $100 in 2001 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $173.73 today…The dollar had an average inflation rate of 2.54% per year between 2001 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 73.73%.” This we need to deduct 42% from the 2022 wage to compare it to 2001 ($63,795.13 – $27,431.91 = $42,363.23). Thus, the wages only went up by 34% while inflation increased 73.73%. 

U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index

The November Job Quality Index report by The Coalition for a Prosperous America states, “The Job Quality Index measures job quality for U.S. production and non-supervisory workers by comparing workers’ weekly wages to the mean weekly wage for all non-supervisory workers. Those jobs above the mean are classified as high-quality and those below the mean are low-quality…Over the past three decades, the JQI declined because the U.S. economy created more low-quality jobs than it has high-quality jobs. As shown in Figure 1, the JQI is down 12.8% from 1990 illustrating the disproportionate growth in low-wage, low-hour jobs.”

The last year that the U.S. had a positive trade balance by exporting more than we imported was 1979. The trade deficit grew gradually from 1980 – 1999, but accelerated after China was granted Most Favored Nation status in the year 2000.  In 2022, the trade deficit of $948.1 billion a 3.9% increase from 2021.

For my industry of manufacturing, there are two other measures that can be examined to determine the true state of the economy.  They are:

US ISM Manufacturing PMI

The Institute of Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index “is a diffusion index summarizing economic activity in the manufacturing sector in the US. The index is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives conducted by ISM. Participants are asked to gauge activity in a number of categories like new orders, inventories, and production and these sub-indices are then combined to create the PMI… A PMI above 50 would designates an overall expansion of the manufacturing economy whereas a PMI below 50 signifies a shrinking of the manufacturing economy.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI was at a level of 46.70 on November 30, 2023, unchanged from 46.70 for October and down from a recent high of 64.70 in March 31, 2021.  The PMI dropped to 49.00 for the November 30. 2022 report, so we have been in a shrinking economy for 13 months.  

U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders  

According to the November report published by AMT, The Association For Manufacturing Technology, “orders for manufacturing technology…continued to fall relative to 2022. Through October 2023 orders totaled $4.05 billion, 13.5% behind the total for the first 10 months of 2022.  

Conclusion:  Adding to the above data is the fact that vehicle gas prices have escalated since 2020.  According to Finder, “Gas prices in over the last 12 months are well above the national average over the last six years, hitting $4.99 a gallon in the week of June 16, 2022 — a week in which Californians paid a whopping $6.43 per gallon…The national average gas price this week [December 7th] is $3.22, down from $3.27. US gas prices over the last year are among the highest since 2018. California has the highest gas prices in the nation, followed by Hawaii as a close second, and Washington, Nevada, and Oregon making up the top five.  Texas has the lowest gas price ($2.68) in the nation followed closely by Mississippi ($2.72) and Oklahoma ($2.74). 

According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, “Last year, U.S. consumers saw the largest annual increase in food prices since the 1980s. While food prices generally increased about 2% in prior years, they increased about 11% from 2021 to 2022…Food prices increases also varied by locality. For example, the highest increase between 2021 and 2022 was seen in Detroit Michigan (about 14.5%). The lowest (about 5%) occurred in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Florida metro area…Finally, food price increases from 2021 to 2022 varied by food group. For example, prices for grains and bakery products increased by about 13%, while fruits and vegetables increased by about 9%.  Similarly, dairy products increased by about 12%, but meats, poultry and fish increased about 10%.”

I am not an economist qualified to do an educated analysis of all of the above data, but it is obvious to me that the U.S. economy has some serious problems that need to be urgently addressed if we want to avoid a prolonged recession. The question that voters ask themselves in an election year, “Am I better off now than I was under the previous administration.”  The answer to that question will determine the outcome of the next election.    
 

How Could we Reduce Inflation and Balance Foreign Trade & the Federal Budget?

Tuesday, August 1st, 2023

We are now nearing the end of the second year of high inflation, and many are wondering why has it been so hard for the Fed to kill inflation.  Could the Fed improve the efficiency of its inflation fighting and avoid causing a recession? Could it do so in a way that balances both foreign trade and the federal budget?

“Yes” is the answer given by one of my fellow members of the Coalition for a Prosperous American, John R. Hansen, PhD, Economic Advisor, The World Bank (retd.) and Founding Director of Americans Backing a Competitive Dollar (ABCD), He wrote me that he believes the Fed could do all of this plus fulfill its mandate of economic growth with stable prices more successfully – and brighten the future for all Americans, both now and for generations to come with only a small policy tweak.”

He explained that “each of America’s ten recessions since the late 1950s has been preceded by inflation and significant increases in the Fed Funds Rate (FFR). Higher interest rates and tighter credit obviously increase costs and reduce demand for American goods resulting in inflation. Reduced demand reduces both output from U.S. producers and growth. By increasing the cost of doing business, higher Fed interest rates force businesses to reduce output and fire workers, leading to recessions.”

In his opinion, “today’s Fed faces a key challenge because when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate, inflows of foreign-source money dilute the Fed’s efforts to reduce the availability and increase the cost of capital. This makes it harder for the Fed to control inflation. Also, excessive stocks of domestic credit tend to reduce the Fed’s ability to raise banks’ lending rates by normal margins.

He added, “When foreign speculators buy up dollars, they raise the dollar’s exchange rate. This makes foreign goods cheaper than those produced in America, destroying demand for American products both here and abroad. U.S. producers find it increasingly difficult to compete with foreign-made goods and many may go out of business.”

Dr. Hansen has developed a solution to moderate inflows of foreign money to make the Fed’s traditional inflation-fighting tools more effective. — a Market Access Charge (MAC) “on any purchase of U.S. dollar financial assets by a foreign entity or individual. As a one-time charge, the MAC would discourage short-term investors, overseas private investors, and return-sensitive official investors such as sovereign wealth fund managers from excessive speculation and trading in U.S. dollar assets.”

He believes that the Fed “can efficiently and effectively use the MAC as a tool to fix the undervaluation of foreign currencies against the dollar. Implementing the MAC could eliminate the U.S. budget deficit, sharply reduce the threat of future debt-ceiling crises, and increase resources available for important industrial policy initiatives, especially those related to national security such as chip manufacturing.”

Furthermore, he wrote that “implementing the MAC would markedly increase the Fed’s ability to control inflation with higher interest rates and tighter monetary policies. With the MAC in place, the Fed’s efforts would no longer generate the massive inflows of foreign-source money inflows that today are triggered by high U.S./foreign interest rate spreads.”

The MAC would be a small fee that would be collected by U.S. banks on all foreign-source money seeking entry to America’s financial markets. The fee, which would be adjusted periodically to eliminate the spread between higher average U.S. interest rates and lower average foreign interest rates, would sharply reduce the speculative gains of foreign-source money. Last year, $90 trillion worth came into America’s capital markets, which was about four times GDP!

Dr. Hansen’s latest calculations indicate that “a 2% MAC charge – about half the spread between U.S. and foreign interest rates that is drawing in foreign cash and making U.S. goods and workers too pricy to compete internationally – would generate about $1.8 trillion of new net revenues per year out of the pockets of foreign speculators – enough to eliminate the U.S. budget deficit and to allow America to start paying down its largest-in-the-world national debt.”

Such revenues would have fully covered the $1.4 trillion deficit for FY2022 with $400 billion left over to support important services, cut taxes, and/or pay down the national debt. Fewer Fed interest rate increases would lower the cost of borrowing for the government. Implementing the MAC tomorrow might not save America from defaulting on its debt this year, but doing so would greatly improve America’s fiscal position, sharply reduce the risk of a recession, stimulate economies of scale, reduce inflation, and reduce America’s growing debt.

Here are a few of the many benefits that America would enjoy if Congress were to approve this trade policy initiative – a policy based on 21st century realities, not 18th century theories.

  1. Reduce the incentives of foreign countries like China and Japan to manipulate the value of their currencies against the dollar.
  2. Increase domestic and foreign demand for Made-in-America goods, thereby creating at least 3-5 million well-paying middle-class jobs, mainly in manufacturing and associated sectors.
  3. Trigger domestic and foreign investments in American manufacturing that would increase output and productive efficiency.
  4. Generate about ten times as much Government revenue per year as import duties on merchandise trade currently generate. And unlike import duties, the MAC would be paid by foreigners, not by people living in America.
  5. Be far more effective than tariffs in reducing overall U.S. trade deficits with countries like China. Tariffs can be evaded rather easily with a large number of widely known tricks like shipping through third countries, rebranding, and under-invoicing.
  6. Make it possible for the U.S. Government to implement important national security, infrastructure, environmental protection, and social investments without raising taxes or increasing the public debt.
  7. Reducing America’s debt service burden would further increase the Government’s ability to invest in high priority programs such as skills training, childcare, and other initiatives that would help the average American and increase America’s productivity without increasing the public debt.
  8. By implementing the MAC, America could roughly double its current rate of economic growth. The MAC would stimulate domestic production and exports while reducing our excessive dependence on imports.

Dr. Hansen and the Coalition for a Prosperous America believe that the MAC would be sufficient to discourage foreign inflows of investment with no material impact on foreign direct investment in factories and other directly productive activities. The MAC or something like it is urgently needed. Implementing the MAC would greatly improve America’s fiscal position, sharply reduce the risk of a recession, stimulate economies of scale, reduce inflation, and reduce America’s growing debt.  Our top priority today should be to protect our national security to remain a free country to ensure the well-being and safety of our children and grandchildren in the future.  

Economic Indicators Report Reveals a Shrinking Middle Class

Tuesday, May 23rd, 2023

A long-time acquaintance of mine, Charles Shor, contacted me recently to inform me that he had founded a new non-profit organization, Blue Collar Dollar Institute.  Charlie has been a long-time reader of my blog articles, and we share a common concern — the shrinking middle class.  We also shared the same opinion of the main reason for the cause of the shrinking middle class:  the loss of higher-paying manufacturing jobs by American manufacturers outsourcing manufacturing to foreign countries, particularly China. 

We agreed that the problem is, “By offshoring much of our manufacturing base, the United States has developed a dependency on importing consumer goods, amassing debt in the private and public sectors, and relying on critical goods from abroad in times of crisis such as pandemics and wars.”

We both feel that the middle class is in trouble.  “The Blue Collar Dollar Institute aims to understand how the United States’ decision to subsidize foreign manufacturing is decreasing the size of our middle class, increasing the amount of Americans in poverty and catapulting forward the wealth in both the top 5% and foreign competitors.”

The Institute’s Mission Statement is: “The Blue Collar Dollar Institute believes that the United States cannot offer a middle-class lifestyle to a large majority of Americans without possessing a strong and vibrant manufacturing sector.  Our non-partisan mission is to research data, inform the public, and advocate for policy in order to help strengthen US manufacturing and goods-producing sectors. 

Prior to founding Blue Collar Dollar Institute, Charlie’s original foundation, The Charles Shor Foundation, collaborated with  Dr. David Perkis, Purdue Center for Economic Education, Krannert School of Management, to prepare a 200-page Economic Indicators Report.

Charlie encouraged me to contact Dr. Perkis, and we had a long conversation when I connected with him last week.  He explained that the report’s purpose “is to provide a picture of the economic and social wellbeing of the United States in comparison to five other industrialized nations:  China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and Singapore… Special attention is given to the manufacturing sector due to its perceived ability to offer high paying jobs and to create additional jobs in communities.”

One of the most serious facts the report reveals is: “Since 1945, the percentage of jobs in manufacturing, construction, and mining has dropped from 40% to 14%, eliminating some of the highest paying jobs for high school graduates.”

The result is: “The dreams of Americans obtaining the basics of a middle-class lifestyle, such as owning a home, sending their kids to college, and obtaining affordable housing, have become more and more out of reach for the average household.”  I’ve seen this in my own family as my two adult children have not been able to buy homes in San Diego, CA.

The results of the research revealed that “Although the United States is still the world leader in total output, it has some dubious distinctions in comparison to the other countries of this study.” The other countries are China, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.  In comparison to these countries, the United States has:

  • The least amount of trade as a share of GDP
  • The largest trade deficits
  • The highest level of adult wealth
  • The most significant wealth inequality
  • The highest level of health care spending (without the best outcomes).
  • The largest level of military spending
  • The lowest GDP share of manufacturing

Needless to say, I only had time to read through the first 40 pages of the lengthy report, so I will only point out some key findings related to manufacturing and trade issues.

As I have written previously in my books and blog articles, the U.S. has trade deficits since 1976, so it was no surprise to me that the report states: “From 1992 – 2019, deficits in manufactured goods have totaled $16.3 trillion (2010 USD), with the bulk of the deficit occurring since 1992 ($15.5 trillion). Since 1992, our largest deficits in manufactured goods have been with China ($4.6 trillion) and Japan ($2.5 trillion).”

Another noteworthy point is “The United States is still the world leader in output as measured by Gross

Domestic Product (Figure 1). In 2019, GDP measured $21.4 trillion USD, compared to $14.4 trillion from its next closest rival, China.”


I’ve long said and wrote that manufacturing jobs are the foundation of the middle class, and if we lose sufficient manufacturing jobs, we will lose the middle class. The loss of middle-class jobs in the U.S. is demonstrated by the fact that “the United States is no longer the leader in average income ($62 thousand USD). That distinction belongs to Singapore ($101 thousand USD).” The result has been “Income inequality in the US has increased significantly over the past 50 years (Figure 10). Income growth for the lowest 60% of income earners fell from the late 1990s through 2015.”

This may be due to the fact that the percentage of jobs in producing goods went down from 39% in 1964 to 15% in 2019, while the percentage of jobs in services increased from 62% in 1964 to 85% in 2019.  The average non-supervisory wage of goods jobs was $944/week I 2019, while the services wage was $699. However, service jobs in retail paid even lower in 2019 —$594/week.

With regard to budgets and deficits, “Except for a four-year period at the end of the Clinton administration, the United States has run a national budget deficit every year since 1970…The governments of Japan and the US carry the most debt…Japan has managed to accumulate the largest government debt as a percentage of GDP, totaling 232% (Figure 22). The United States is a distant

second carrying debt just over 100% of GDP…However, total government debt does not tell the whole story as some may be owed to a country’s own citizens while some will be due to foreign entities. For

instance, of Japan’s 232% debt, 208% is owed to domestic entities with a small portion due overseas (Figure 23). Within our comparison group, the United States government maintains the greatest holdings of debt to foreigners (37%).” 

As I have written in previous articles, there is a relationship between budget deficits and trade deficits.  When a country is buying more imports than selling exports, this produces less revenue for the government, so the country goes into debt to pay its expenses.  We lost 5.8 million manufacturing jobs between 2000 and 2010, and have only added back 1.2 million manufacturing jobs from reshoring and Foreign Direct Investment.  If these manufacturing workers had to get service jobs, they would be receiving lower wages and thus paying lower taxes.  In addition, the higher percentage of workers being paid lower wages for a service job results in their paying less taxes, again reducing the government’s revenue.

The report also mentions the benefits of manufacturing for a town, region, state, and the country as a whole.  This is because

1) “Most goods can be traded anywhere in the world, creating more exports and

generating income from overseas, whereas services are typically limited to

local markets.

2) Manufacturing positions create more additional jobs in the local community

than do service oriented positions. This is the multiplier effect of manufacturing.”

The report explains, “Job multipliers indicate how many total jobs will be created within a region due

to a new position in a particular industry.”  The job multiplier effect for manufacturing jobs ranges from 2.2 to 4.0, whereas the multiplier effect for service jobs ranges from 1.3 to 1.9.

The goals of the Blue Collar Dollar Institute to have strong manufacturing, construction, and mining sectors would help middle-class households have a prosperous life in the following ways: 

  • “By creating high-paying jobs for individuals without a college education. 
  • By selling more products overseas than we buy overseas, bringing net funds into the country. 
  • By making our nation less dependent on foreign countries for critical goods in times of crisis such as pandemics and wars, thus reducing risk for the average American.”

I look forward to continuing my discussions with Dr. Perkis to explore ways in which Industry Reimagined 2030 can collaborate to achieve the goals we have in common, such as adding 5 million middle-income manufacturing jobs and $1 trillion to the economy by 2030.

How We Can Stop China’s Global Strategy to Cripple America

Tuesday, February 21st, 2023

T

Two years ago, Curtis Ellis, one of my heroes died after losing his battle with cancer. Curtis was a prominent trade expert and an astute architect of economic nationalism. In my tribute article to him, I wrote “Curtis was a true patriot and defender of liberty, who believed in all of the greatness of our country and devoted much of his life to putting America first in economic policies to benefit American workers and not just Wall Street.” He believed that we have to fight to save America to create jobs and prosperity by bringing higher paying manufacturing jobs back to America. He was a patriotic crusader against the unfair trade agreements that had caused the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs and our enormous trade deficits year after year.

I knew Curtis had been working on a book before he died, but didn’t know if he had finished it. I was pleased to learn that he had. His longtime partner, Maxine Albert, found a publisher for this timely book – that just launched.  Maxine wrote: “He pushed himself to finish this book because he saw the Chinese Communist’s Party as the most dangerous threat to the nation he loved. Curtis saw something truly sinister in China’s trade abuse as economic warfare.”

It was a great honor to be able to read an advanced copy to write this review of his vitally important book, Pandemonium – China’s global strategy to cripple America, available on amazon and Barnes & Noble. https://amzn.to/3RNWHf1Curtis Ellis  

Curtis Ellis was one of the early policy experts to realize the danger the Chinese Communist Party posed to America.  He understood the world economy and pointed out that “free trade” was a fallacy because of the mercantilist, totalitarian dictatorship in China.  He sounded the alarm on the gathering storm with a chilling account of China’s assault on America in its quest to be the Superpower of the 21st Century.  He foresaw that a crisis with China is inevitable because of their increasing aggression and frightening military buildup that has been funded by America’s manufacturers and consumers. 

He had the talent to be able to transform a complicated economic topic into an easily understandable and compelling narrative that would motivate people to act, and he does that by giving us a detailed, comprehensive and winning plan to declare our independence from China.

In the introduction, Curtis reminded us “Americans lived in a global economy when we wrote the first Declaration of Independence. At that time, the ‘global economy’ was known as the British Empire“ He wrote, “Americans were compelled to send their fiber, timber, and ore on ships across the ocean to ‘the workshop of the world,’ where they were fashioned into finished goods, then sent back and sold to Americans at prices set by others…Today the ‘workshop of the world’ is not Britain, but China.”  

In his first chapter, “How America Became an Invalid,” he outlines how our present position “didn’t just happen. It was not inevitable. It was the result of specific decisions made by specific people in specific places and specific positions of power.”

From my own research for my own books, I was aware of some of these key decisions that led to the decimation of American manufacturing, but I didn’t realize that the ideology of “globalism” started so long ago.  Curtis wrote about a hearing held by the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress on “the future of manufacturing” that occurred in Washington, D. C. in June 1967.  He wrote, “At the hearing, George Ball, a Wall Street grandee who served in the State Department under presidents Kennedy and Johnson, laid out the ideology of globalism” in which “earth straddling corporations should replace the ‘crazy quilt” of independent nations as the organizing principle of society.” Ball recommended that “Washington should work for “a considerable erosion of the rigid concepts of national sovereignty…the ‘common philosophy’ and ‘common goal’ should be economic efficiency and corporate profits…”

The adoption of this globalist ideology by government and industry certainly explains what has happened in the past 55 years— tax policies that favor multinational global corporations and American corporations moving manufacturing to other countries to maximize profits, first to El Salvador, Puerto Rico, the Philippines, Mexico, and finally China.

In chapter II, “A Dysfunctional Relationship,” Curtis gives a detailed description of how the U.S. relationship with China has become dysfunctional over the past five decades since President Nixon opened our doors to China. 

In chapter III, “Meet the New Boss:  The Global Elite,” he describes how “What’s good for America” became replaced by “What’s Good for the Global Economy” to the detriment of patriotic American businessmen and women. 

Chapter IV, “How China Buys Influence” outlines China’s strategy “to shape American public opinion and influence our economic and government policies to benefit the Beijing regime.”

Chapter V covers a subject near and dear to my heart, “The American System —The Origin of America’s Prosperity” that I wrote about in the first chapter of my book, Can American Manufacturing be Saved? Why we should and how we can. He uses many of the same quotes of the founders of our country that I used, such as “A free people…should promote such manufactories as tend to render then independent from others for essential, particularly military supplies,” from George Washington’s first address to Congress. 

Curtis wrote that the American System was conceived by Treasury Secretary, Alexander Hamilton, by imposing tariffs on imported goods to “raise revenue and protect American industries from predatory competition…. The American System…guided U.S national economic development from the earliest days of the republic, through the Civil War, and into the better part of the twentieth century.” 

In chapter VI, “Setting the Record Straight on Adam Smith,” Curtis clarifies the “foundational economic treatise on the principles of the free market system” proposed by Adam Smith in his book, The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776.

Chapter VII, “Tearing Down ‘The House of World Order” describes how “the international rules-based order,” which is a “euphemism for globalism” that is the basis for the World Trade Organization.  Curtis wrote ”The pandemic showed that the true cost of the China price is very high indeed.   It showed how an economy reliant on global supply chains and just-in-time inventory management is fragile.”

In Chapter VIII, Curtis outlines how to hold China accountable, and Chapter IX describes how to defund China.  In chapter X, Curtis provides common sense on Communist China, and Chapter XI outlines a plan to restore our economic independence.  Chapter XII concludes with a new declaration of independence. 

I don’t want to spoil any of these well thought out prescriptions by providing any quotes from these chapters.  It’s critical that you read these chapters yourself and make your own decision on how you can play a part in saving our country.  I conclude my review with what Maxine wrote as her concluding words in the Foreword: “As I wrote these words, I can hear Curtis saying something he often told me. ‘Each of us has a part to play to stand up for American. You can change the world, one person at a time.’”

I have endeavored to change the world as one person by writing three books and hundreds of blog articles and will continue to do so until the day I die or can’t write or speak any longer. I’m enjoying the greater role I now have the opportunity to play as part of Industry Reimagined 2030 to revitalize American manufacturing to achieve the goals of our vision.  I urge you to take these words of Curtis to heart and do what you can do so our country can become independent from China.

Who Are My Heroes? Part Two

Tuesday, April 28th, 2020

My additional heroes are people with whom I connected after my first book, Can American Manufacturing be Saved? Why we should and how we can was published in 2009. We shared a focus on doing what we could to save and rebuild American manufacturing. Again, they are presented alphabetically, not chronologically.

Greg Autry, Ph.D., is “an educator, writer and technology entrepreneur. He researches and publishes on space commerce, entrepreneurship, technology innovation and trade policy. He is an Assistant Professor of Clinical Entrepreneurship with the Lloyd Greif Center for Entrepreneurial Studies in the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California, where he teaches entrepreneurship and technology commercialization courses.” I met Greg when he was a doctoral candidate at the Merage School of Business at UC Irvine, before he became Senior Economist for the non-partisan, non-profit organization. Coalition for a Prosperous America,  We were also fellow board members of the non-profit American Jobs Alliance for five years. Dr. Autry is the co-author of the book Death by China and a producer on the documentary film, Death by China, (directed by Peter Navarro). His opinion articles have been published in major news outlets including the San Francisco Chronicle, LA Times, Washington Times, Wall Street Journal, and SpaceNews. He was a regular contributor to Huffington Post and is now a regular contributor to Forbes. He is currently on the advisory board of the Coalition for a Prosperous America.

Den Black is President of the non-partisan, non-profit organization, American Jobs Alliance (AJA). He earned a BSME at Kettering University and worked as a Senior Strategist, Futurist, Innovator at Delphi Automotive Systems for 37 years.  Den invited me to join the board of AJA in 2012 after he was referred to me by Executive Director, Curtis Ellis after we met when he was on a West Coast trip. AJA is “dedicated to fostering the public’s understanding of the American System of free enterprise, a system established by the Founding Fathers of the United States to develop the domestic economy of the United States and promote the employment of Americans in diverse occupations through investment in infrastructure and promotion of key industries and technologies in the United States.” Currently AJA is promoting a window decal  “Boycott China for Jobs, Human Rights, Peace” and AJA’s affiliated website:  www.GetOutofChina.us.

Don Buckner is the Founder and CEO of MadeinAmerica.com, MadeinUSA.com, and MadeinAmerica.org. His vision started in 1998 “when he attempted to find several American-made products online, but was unable to do so. Frustrated, he took matters into his own hands, purchasing the Domain MadeintheUSA.com. The website served as a directory resource connecting patriotic consumers to more than 300,000 American-made manufacturers for several years. He also acquired the Domain MadeInAmerica.com.” After the company he founded in 1997, Vac-Tron Equipment, was acquired in 2018, he and his wife decided to invest some of their profits to hold the first Made in America trade show.  They rented the convention center in Indianapolis, IN, where the first show was held October 3-6, 2019. I met Don when I attended the show as one of the many featured panelists and speakers.  The next Made in America show will be held at the TCF convention center, Detroit, Michigan Oct. 1-4, 2020. 

Dan DiMicco, is an American businessman who is the former CEO and chairman of Nucor Steel company and is now Chairman Emeritus. Dan was appointed to the United States Manufacturing Council in 2008 by then-U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos M. Gutierrez, and served on the board until 2011. Dan also served on the boards of the National Association of Manufacturers and the World Steel Association on the Executive Committee. He also served as a Senior Trade/Economic Advisor to the Trump Campaign and the Lead on the USTR Transition Team. He currently serves on the Board of Directors for Duke Energy Corporation and continues to represent Nucor on the US Council on Competitiveness. He is currently Chairman of the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA). He is the author of American Made: Why Making Things Will Return Us to Greatness, published in 2015. I had the pleasure of hearing Mr. DiMicco speak as the keynote speaker at several of the Manufacturing Summits held in California between 2013-2018, when I was the chair of the California chapter of CPA and at the Trade Conferences held by CPA in Washington, D. C. during this same time period.

Curtis Ellis was the Executive Director of the American Jobs Alliance, an independent non-profit organization promoting pro-jobs and Buy American policies, when I met him after my first book was published. He recommended me as a potential board member to Den Black of AJA. He had previously worked in Congress and on federal, state and local campaigns. For his work as a journalist, producer, writer and reporter, he has appeared on 60 Minutes, HBO, NBC, CNN, NPR and in the NY Times, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, TIME, Huffington Post, The Hill, and other outlets. His commentary has appeared on CNN, MSNBC and radio shows nationwide. Currently, Mr. Ellis is currently Policy Director with America First Policies. He served as senior policy advisor on the 2016 Trump-Pence campaign, was on the Presidential Transition Team, and served as special advisor to the U.S. Secretary of Labor in the International Labor Affairs Bureau in 2017.

Ian Fletcher, author of Free Trade Doesn’t Work, What Should Replace it and Why, published in 2011. When I met him, he was a Research Fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council. Alan Tonelson asked him to meet me when he was in southern California in the summer of 2010, not long after I started writing blog articles. When, he switched to becoming the Senior Economist of the Coalition for a Prosperous America in early 2011, he suggested I join CPA, which I did.  I immediately read his book from which I learned everything I didn’t know about the dangerous effects of our trade agreements. While he was at CPA, he and Michael Stumo (CPA CEO) edited the second edition of my book, Can American Manufacturing be Saved? – Why we should and how we can, which was published in 2012 by CPA. Ian was a featured speaker at several of the above- mentioned Manufacturing Summits.  He was educated at Columbia and the University of Chicago, and he lives in San Francisco. He is currently on the advisory board of the Coalition for a Prosperous America.

Rosemary Gibson is a “national authority on health care reform, Medicare, patient safety and overtreatment in medicine, as well as “an award-winning author, inspirational speaker, and advisor to organizations that advance the public’s interest in health care.”  She is the co-author of China RX, published in 2018, as well as Medicare Meltdown (2013), Battle Over Health Care (2012), Treatment Trap (2010), and Wall of Silence (2003). I met Ms. Gibson when she was a featured speaker at the Made in America trade show in October 2019. With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic this year, her book is getting the full attention it deserves as an expose of the offshoring to China of pharmaceuticals, PPE, and medical devices.

Harry Moser founded the Reshoring Initiative in 2010 after 25 years as the North American president of GF AgieCharmilles, now GF Machining Solutions. The mission of the Reshoring Initiative is to help bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. using the Total Cost of Ownership Worksheet calculator he developed. Harry was inducted into the Industry Week Manufacturing Hall of Fame 2010 and was named Quality Magazine’s Quality Professional of the year for 2012…won the Jan. 2013 The Economist debate on outsourcing and offshoring, and received the Manufacturing Leadership Council’s Industry Advocacy Award in 2014. Harry and I connected in August 2010 after he read my blog article about the importance of understanding Total Cost of Ownership.  He told me I wrote about what he just started and trained me how to use his TCO worksheet, authorizing me to be a speaker on behalf of the Reshoring Initiative.  

James Sturber is the author of What if Things Were Made in America Again: How Consumers Can Rebuild the Middle Class by Buying Things Made in American Communities, published in 2017. Subsequently, he founded the Made in America again organization. After obtaining a law degree, he “devoted his career to public policy, law and entrepreneurship.  He began his career as legislative assistant to a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, focusing on matters before the Committee on Energy and Commerce.  He subsequently practiced legislative and administrative law in Washington, D.C. I met Jim at the Coalition for a Prosperous America trade conference in Washington, D. C. in 2018. When I read his book, I discovered we had some up with much of the same data in our research as my last book, Rebuild Manufacturing – the key to American Prosperity was also published in 2017. He currently co-chairs the Buy American committee for CPA of which I am a member.

Alan Uke is a San Diego businessman, entrepreneur, and community leader, who “started his company, Underwater Kinetics, 41 years ago while attending the University of California at San Diego. Uke holds over 40 patents and exports his SCUBA diving, industrial lighting, and protective case products to over 60 countries.”  He is the author of Buying America Back, A Real-Deal Blueprint for Restoring American Prosperity, published in 2012. Uke documented that in 2011, the U.S. had a trade deficit with 88 countries provides a chart showing the trade balance with every country with which the U. S. trades. When we met for lunch, I found out that he was also a member of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, so we had something else in common. “He is also Founder Emeritus/Founding Board President of the San Diego Aircraft Carrier Museum which acquired the USS Midway in June 2004.”

I would be remiss in not giving Honorable Mention to the many members of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission that was “created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act of 2001…” The primary purpose of this Commission is “to monitor, investigate, and report to Congress on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.” Beginning in December 2002, the Commission submitted “to Congress a report, in both unclassified and classified form, regarding the national security implications and impact of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. The report shall include a full analysis, along with conclusions and recommendations for legislative and administrative actions, if any, of the national security implications for the United States of the trade and current balances with the People’s Republic of China in goods and services, financial transactions, and technology transfers.”  I read several of the reports as I was researching my three books, and each year, China’s unfair trading practices threats to U.S. national security, and other violations of the principles and terms of China’s membership in the World Trade Organization were well documented.  Yet, no action was taken by Congress under the administrations of President Bush or President Obama.   

I met many other people at the Made in America trade show last October, some of whom have recently joined the CPA Buy American committee. Some of these people could very well be listed in a future article on my heroes as I get to know them and their work better.  I would encourage you to join our efforts to rebuild America’s economy to create jobs and prosperity by becoming a member of CPA.

Who Are My Heroes? Part One

Tuesday, April 21st, 2020

As you might expect my heroes are people who have played a role in trying to alert Americans to the effects to our economy of the decimation of American manufacturing and the dangers of outsourcing manufacturing to China and other countries.  These are real people and none are elected officials.

This month marks the 13th year of my journey to do what I could to save American manufacturing. In May 2007, I e published one of my periodic San Diego County Industry reports that I had been writing since 2003.  I titled it, “Can U.S. Manufacturing be Saved?” My report had grown from four pages to 13 pages, and I realized that what I was documenting about the loss of manufacturers in San Diego and California was going on all over the country.  That’s when I made the decision to start writing my first book, Can American Manufacturing be Saved? Why we should and how we can, published in May 2009.  In the course of researching and writing my first book, my second edition of the same (2012), and my third book, Rebuild Manufacturing – the key to American Prosperity (2017), I have connected with many people who shared my concerns and were early advocates of saving American manufacturing.

My first set of heroes are those who either wrote books, articles, or newsletters that I came across researching my first book. When I was writing my reports, I was blaming the loss of manufacturing in California on the bad business climate, high taxes, and the cheap Chinese wages. These heroes expanded my knowledge greatly by showing that it was our primarily our national trade and tax policies, the trade cheating of China and other Asian countries, and corporate greed that was responsible for losing over five million manufacturing jobs between the year 2000 and 2009.  In alphabetical order, my heroes are:

Michael P. Collins is author of Saving American Manufacturing, Growth Strategies for Small and Midsize Manufacturers, published in 2006 and its companion handbook, The Growth Planning Handbook. Prior to becoming a writer, he was Vice President and General Manager of two divisions of Columbia Machine in Vancouver Washington. He is President of MPC Management, a consulting company that focuses exclusively on the problems and challenges of small and midsize manufacturers (SMMs) of industrial products and services. His book is written from the viewpoint of what manufacturers can do to save themselves and grow their business.  I arranged for him to come to San Diego to give a presentation to the Operations Roundtable of the American Electronic Association in 2011.

Lou Dobbs, is an American television commentator, radio show host, and the anchor of Lou Dobbs Tonight on Fox Business Network, and author of Exporting America, Why Corporate Greed is Shipping American Jobs Overseas, published in 2004 as hard cover and 2006 as a paperback. In his book, he “takes aim at the corporate executives and Washington politicians who profit by exporting U.S. jobs overseas—and shows readers what they can do to save not only their own careers, but the American way of life.

Ralph Gomory, who is well-known for his mathematical research and his technical leadership. For twenty years he was responsible for IBM’s Research Division, and then for 18 years was the President of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. He is the co-author with the late William J. Baumol of the book, Global Trade and Conflicting National Interests, published by MIT Press in 2001. After connecting by phone and email for years, it was nice to finally meet him at the Coalition for a Prosperous America trade conference in Washington, D. C. in 2018.

Richard McCormack, journalist and founder/publisher of Manufacturing & Technology News which he found in 1994. McCormack also served as the editor of the 2013 book on revitalizing manufacturing, ReMaking America. I read every issue of MT&N from July 2007 until it stopped publication at the end of 2016. He was also recognized as an American Made Hero by AmericanMadeHeroes.com for his newsletter “coverage of the profound financial and economic ramifications of the shift of industrial capability from the United States to Asian competitors.” He wrote “thousands of articles on outsourcing, industrial and technological competitiveness, government policies, and trends related to management, quality, technology and markets.”Mr. McCormack is currently Press Secretary and Program Manager, Office of Public Affairs, for the Department of Commerce.

Peter Kent Navarro is a Harvard Ph.D. economist and author of several books. I read his book The Coming China Wars, published in 2006, while I was researching my book. At that time, he was a professor of public policy at the University of California, Irvine. He currently serves in the Trump administration as the Assistant to the President, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, and the national Defense Production Act policy coordinator. I first met Mr. Navarro when he was a professor at the University of California, San Diego and running for mayor in 1992. I also had the pleasure of seeing him when I attended the trade conference in 2018. I also read his book, Death by China, which he co-authored with Greg Autry, published in 2012.

Raymond Richman, Howard Richman (son), and Jesse Richman (grandson), authors of Trading Away our Future: How to Fix Our Government-Driven Trade Deficits and faulty Tax System Before It’s Too Late, published by Ideal Taxes Association in 2008. Raymond died in October 2019 at the age of 101. His tribute by Ideal Taxes states, he “authored four books, dozens of journal articles and hundreds of commentaries about economic development, tax policy and trade policy…Beginning with a commentary in the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review on September 14, 2003 (The Great Trade Debate), he became one of the first advocates of a policy of balanced trade, an alternative to the free trade vsfair trade debateHis essential argument was that trade, free or not, benefits both countries if it is balanced.” I am sorry that I didn’t get to meet him before he died.

Roger Simmermaker, author of How Americans Can Buy American: The Power of Consumer Patriotism, third edition published in 2008. He also writes Buy American Mention of the Week articles for his website and World New Daily. His book provides a guide to assist American’s who wish to purchase products made in America and discusses the importance of “Buying American” for the future economic independence & prosperity of America. He earned special recognition as an American Made Hero. After years of connecting to him by phone and email, it was a pleasure to also meet him at the same trade conference in 2018.

Alan Tonelson, a Research Fellow at the U.S. Business and Industry Council Educational Foundation, and a columnist for the Foundation’s globalization website, Tradealert.org and a Research Associate at the George Washington University Center for International Science and Technology Policy. He is also the author of The Race to the Bottom, published in 2000. “He has written extensively on the trade deficit between the United States and other countries. He has also written on free trade, globalization and industrial decline. He argues that U.S. economic policy should aim for “preeminence” over other countries, just as, he believes, other countries’ economic policies seek their own national interests. He is critical of various forms of “globalism” and internationalism.”

When I was researching my first book, the U.S. Business and Industry Council was the only organization that had a written plan to save American Manufacturing.

I introduced my book as a speaker at the Del Mar Electronics Show in San Diego County, California on May 6, 2009, and had my book on display at my company’s booth at the show. One of the first persons to buy my book was Adrian Pelkus, President of contract manufacturer, A Squared Technologies.  He was also the informal leader of the steering group running the San Diego Inventors Forum.  He invited me to the next SDIF meeting which I attended, and then invited me to join the steering committee, which I did.  After reading my book and endorsing the purpose and ideas I presented in my book, the steering committee changed the focus of SDIF from helping inventors source their products in China to sourcing the manufacture of their products in the U.S.

The SDIF meetings have an informal curriculum of topics to cover in a year, and I have been giving an annual presentation on how to select the right manufacturing processes and vendors to make their products.  It has a pleasure to be able to help so many inventors and entrepreneurs source their products in America.

My connections to theses heroes led me to connections with many other people and organizations who became part of my second set of heroes after my book was published.  I will write about these people in My Heroes Part Two. 

Reshoring Critical Pharmaceuticals and Manufactured Goods Would Create Millions of Jobs

Tuesday, March 31st, 2020

It’s a pity that it took the coronavirus pandemic to wake up Americans to the dangers of our dependence on foreign sources for pharmaceuticals and health care products. Perhaps we could have saved lives if our leaders had taken heed to the warning of co-authors Rosemary Gibson and Janardan Prasad Singh in their book China RX, published in 2018. The authors exposed how the pharmaceutical industry has transferred the manufacturing of generic drugs, vital medicines and medical devices to China and other countries, which has resulted in great risk to the health of Americans as well as a substantial risk to our national security.

In their book, they quote Dr. Goodman, dean of the Milken Business School of Public Health at George Washington University, saying, “It is a matter of national security that we have the essential drugs we need…I think it is time for an examination, for some of the most critical drugs, and it’s not just drugs, medical supplies, masks are all made overseas. Do we need to think about having at least some resilient manufacturing capacity built in this country?”

Yes, we do need to return the manufacture of pharmaceuticals and medical devices to benefit the health and safety of all Americans. Additionally, there would be economic benefits. On March 17th, the Coalition for a Prosperous America released a report on the results of the investigation conducted by Steven L. Byers, PhD and Jeff Ferry of their research team into the potential economic benefits of reshoring pharmaceutical production to the U.S.  They “found that an ambitious but realistic reshoring program could create 804,000 US jobs and add $200 billion to annual GDP in the first year.”

Their investigation showed that imports of pharmaceuticals had increased “dramatically as US-based drug manufacturers moved manufacturing facilities offshore.” By 2019, “pharmaceuticals ranked third as a US import category [$74 billion], behind automobiles ($180 billion) and crude oil ($132 billion) …”

The report states” Eighty percent of all pharmaceutical imports are accounted for by the top ten countries. Seven of the top ten countries we import from are in Europe…” Ireland is number one followed by Germany, Switzerland, Italy, India, Denmark, Belgium, Canada, United Kingdom, and Japan of the top ten. “China is well behind the leaders, in 17th place, with just $1.6 billion of pharmaceutical imports last year.”

However, “the Census category of pharmaceutical imports does not include the key ingredients that go into pharmaceuticals, known as Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API).” In recent testimony to Congress, Rosemary Gibson, author of China RX, stated “that three antibiotics used to treat coronavirus or related infections, azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, and piperacillin/tazobactam, are all dependent on supplies of APIs from China.” Senate Finance Committee chairman Charles Grassley commented, “80 percent of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients are produced abroad, the majority in China and India.”

Byers and Ferry “used  the REMI Policy Insight Model[1] to estimate the impact on the US economy of restoring our level of pharmaceutical imports to the level of 2010, when we imported $61.6 billion of pharmaceuticals [and] reduced chemical imports by $4.9 billion in [their] simulation, to account for the increased imports of chemical ingredients that go into pharmaceuticals.” They ran the “model over a five-year period, 2020 through 2024.”

While the creation of jobs was the highest the first year at 804,000, the subsequent years created 614,000 in 2021, 548,000 in 2022, 453,000 in 2023, and 371,000 in 2024 for a total of 2,382,000 additional jobs.

Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing jobs pay a median income of $74,890, which is “47 percent higher than the median for all private-sector employees.”

The authors comment that “The economic benefits of reshoring US pharmaceutical production are thus substantial. They are also strategic; in that they would reduce US dependence on potentially hostile countries like China. In times of pandemic, there is also a non-zero risk that even friendly nations will prioritize their own citizens over exports. At the very least, the US needs a comprehensive audit of its dependence on individual nations and companies for pharmaceuticals, APIs, and any other key inputs.”

They conclude that “The US has become increasingly dependent on imports of foreign produced pharmaceutical and other health care products as well as the ingredients that go into their production. As a result, the supply chain is highly susceptible to interruption which would put significant pressure on our healthcare system…The benefits of reshoring pharmaceutical and ingredient production are large in terms of national security, patient safety, and economic welfare.”

On Friday, March 27th, the Trump Administration announced it would use the Defense Production Act, to compel General Motors to make more ventilators quicker than the company had planned to produce..

In an article in the Washington Post on March 28th, Joshua Gotbaum wrote: “Under the Defense Production Act, the federal government can, like a traffic cop, direct that inventories be allocated where they are needed most urgently. That’s what FEMA does during floods and hurricanes…The DPA also allows government to move its orders to the front of the line. The Defense Department does this regularly, but the act can be used for more than defense…The government can also use the act to order, and then pay for, expanded production, with new products or new plant capacity. “  

He recommended “The administration needs to act quickly, the DPA using all of its authority to procure not just ventilators but also test kits, masks and other equipment for health-care workers and covid-19 victims.” Mr. Gotbaum speaks from experience as he administered some Defense Production Act authorities as assistant secretary of defense in the 1990s and is currently a guest scholar in the Brookings Institution’s Economic Studies Program.

The benefits of reshoring would be even greater if we returned all critical manufactured goods to the U.S. than just returning pharmaceutical and medical products.  According to recent Reshoring Initiative data, Harry Moser, over 3,000 companies have reshored, creating about 740,000 jobs.  He estimates that if we reduce our trade deficit caused by importing more than we export by 20%, it would create one million jobs. Using the free Total Cost of Ownership Analysis calculator available at www.reshorenow.org would help more companies return manufacturing to America.

We need to ensure that we will have the critical products needed to weather future unforeseen events. In my opinion, the policies to address the Coronavirus crisis should be just the beginning of a concentrated effort to reshore all critical manufactured goods to America. Let’s use all of the potentially available policies:

  • Invoke the Defense Production Act on all critical manufactured goods
  • Impose 25% tariffs on all imported goods from China
  • Incentivize manufacturers to produce products that were offshored to China

U.S. Private Sector Jobs Have Declined since 1990

Tuesday, December 10th, 2019

On November 14, 2019, Cornel Law School “announced the launch of a new tool for evaluating the U.S. employment situation and predicting related variables: the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI).” The Index described in the White Paper represents 18 months of research by Daniel Alpert, adjunct professor at Cornell Law School and founding managing partner of the investment bank, Westwood Capital, LLC, Jeffrey Ferry, chief economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA), Dr, Robert C. Hockett, Professor of Law at Cornell Law School, and Amir Khaleghi, a Research Fellow at the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity (GISP) and a PhD student at the University of Missouri–Kansas City.

At the many economic summits I’ve attended over the past 25 years, I’ve heard economists state that the U. S. is creating more low paying jobs than high paying jobs but there hasn’t been any data available to track this trend on a regular basis.  For the first time, the Job Quality Index provides a tool to measure “desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs.”

The authors define job quality as “the weekly dollar-income a job generates for an employee” They explain that “The JQI is an analysis of weekly incomes earned by the holders of each of the private sector P&NS jobs in U.S. It derives its data from the hourly wages paid, and hours worked by, holders of jobs in 180 separate sectors of the American economy.”

Since the end of WWII, the “percentage of private U.S. jobs in the service-providing sectors increased steadily from approximately 55%” to “around 83.5%” at the end of the Great Recession in 2009.  It has remained flat since that point. However, the paper states that “While service-sector growth as a percentage of all jobs has leveled off, job quality continues to worsen.”

The authors commented, “As weekly earnings of services sector jobs have, to an increasing degree, materially lagged those of jobs in the goods- producing sector (Figure 6), an increase of the percentage of service sector jobs would naturally result in an increase in the number of jobs below the mean, as reflected in the JQI.”

In addition, the authors note that the gap between higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs” has widened almost four-fold to $402 in 2018 from $104 in 1990”  

The paper states, “jobs as tracked by the JQI are defined by reference to data on private sector (nongovernmental) employment provided by third party employers—it does not include self-employed workers. In the first iteration of the JQI being presented in this paper, the index covers only production and nonsupervisory (P&NS) positions, which account for approximately 82.3% of the total number of private sector job positions in the country.”

By the end of 2020, a second index (JQL-2) “will run and be maintained side-by-side with the original JQI-1 index. This will track all private sector jobs, with data commencing in 2000.”

Monthly revisions to the JQI-1 will be published “contemporaneously with the monthly release of U.S. employment data by the BLS (generally on the first Friday of each calendar month. In the future, the JQI will be “presented as a three-month rolling average of monthly readings. This is done to address month over month variability which is too volatile to be a reliable directional trend measure.”

The November JQI stated:  “the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI)® has been revised to a level of 80.39, representing a minor decline of 0.04% from its level one month ago and reflecting a somewhat lower proportion of U.S. production and non-supervisory (P&NS) jobs paying less than the mean weekly income of all P&NS jobs, relative to those jobs paying more than such mean. The mean weekly income of all P&NS jobs as of the current reading (reflecting the level as of October 2019) was $794, a change of 0.9% from its level the month prior.”  The chart released is shown below:

The paper is divided into five parts:

Part I — Need for the JQI: The Unmeasured Problem with American Jobs

Part II — Construction of the JQI: Capturing and Tracking the Data (explains the development technical detail, setting forth the assumptions and algorithms inherent in its generation)

Part III — Applying the JQI: Illuminating Areas of Confusion in Economic Transmission (discusses the relationship and potential forecasting usefulness of the index in connection with other economic data)

Part IV — Further Developing the JQI: What the Future Holds for the Index (discusses future maintenance and expansion of the index)

Part V — Conclusion: An Index for our Time

Among other things, Part III discusses “The relevance of the resulting “Phillips Curve,” relating lower unemployment to higher levels of inflation…[which] remains—in various modified forms—part of central bank policy consideration to this day.”

It also discussed the impact of the JQI on household incomes and consumption with regard to the U.S. Balance of Trade in Goods. The authors comment, “…as American consumption has continued to rise, the goods consumed had to be produced by someone—even as U.S. goods production jobs plummeted. As evidenced by the U.S. balance of trade over the past several decades, goods consumed by Americans at the margin came increasingly to be manufactured abroad”

They later comment, “The decline in U.S. job quality over the past three decades is linked substantially to a decline in goods-producing jobs.”

 Some of the findings of the research that were of particular interest to me in Part III were:

  • “The JQI’s definition of high-quality jobs (those above mean weekly earnings) provided an average of 38.26 hours of weekly work at year-end 2018, compared with low quality (those below the mean) which provided 29.98 hours.”
  • The percentage of goods producing jobs as a percentage of total private sector jobs dropped from 25.6% in 1990 (down from a high of 43% in 1960) to 16.4% in 2018.

The researches commented, “Surprisingly, the data as analyzed with the JQI also tend to predict the performances of many other salient metrics of the national economy and—in the end—financial markets too…The JQI can significantly improve decision making of policymakers as well as better-inform participants in the financial markets.”

In their Conclusion, the authors remind us of the fact “that the US manufacturing workforce has declined dramatically in the past three decades.” Between 1970 and 1990, the decline was gradual, going down from “17.8 million manufacturing workers” to “17.7 million.” By the year 2000, “it was down 2.4 percent to 17.3 million manufacturing workers.” In the next decade, “manufacturing employment fell off a cliff. By 2010, manufacturing employment was down a shocking 33.2 percent at 11.5 million. Since 2010, the figure has crept up only somewhat, to reach 12.8 million in May 2019.”

 “Meanwhile, the total US working population has grown dramatically over those years. In 1970, manufacturing workers accounted for 22.6 percent of total US civilian employment. As of May 2019, they accounted for just 8.2 percent of the total.”

They comment, “An important question surrounding the decline of manufacturing is whether those leaving manufacturing are transitioning into better or worse jobs.  After building the new Job Quality Index, “the answer is that lost manufacturing jobs were chiefly replaced by lower-wage/lower hours service jobs.”

The White Paper confirms my research in writing three books and hundreds of articles in the past ten years — losing millions of manufacturing jobs between 2000 – 2010 resulted in a decline in the middle class because manufacturing jobs are the foundation of the middle class. Without a strong middle class, we risk becoming a nation of “haves” and “have nots.” I hope the Job quality Index will wake up more economists, Congressional representatives, and employees of government agencies to the dangers of this trend before it’s too late. 

CPA Report Shows Higher China Tariffs Could Increase U.S. Jobs and GDP

Monday, August 19th, 2019

On July 22, 2019, the Coalition for a Prosperous America released an update to their study on the effects of increasing tariffs on all imported Chinese goods to 25% that had originally released in May. The study was conducted by CPA’s Chief Economist Jeff Ferry and Steven L. Byers, Ph.D. The Coalition for a Prosperous America is a non-profit, non-partisan organization working to eliminate the trade deficit with smart trade and tax policies to create jobs and prosperity.

According to the report, “The tariff revenue totals $547 billion over five years. If those funds are reinjected back into the economy each year, this additional stimulus to growth results in a $167 billion boost to GDP and 1.05 million additional jobs in 2024…The results of the Coalition for a Prosperous America (CPA) model show that tariffs will have a sustained, positive impact on the US economy, including jobs, output, and investment.”

The report states:  “The tariff would stimulate the US economy through two channels: first, the relocation of US-bound production from China to other nations would lead to a reduction in the average cost of imports because many alternative production locations ,such as those in Southeast Asia, today have lower costs of production than China; and secondly, because a portion of the production in China relocated to the US, would directly stimulate the US economy.”

In stark contrast, the opinions of professional economists are reflected in an article titled, “Trade Wars Are Not Good, or Easy to Win” in The Atlantic on August 5, 2019, staff writer Derek Thompson, wrote, ” President Donald Trump has stubbornly insisted on Chinese tariffs over the objections of his economic advisers—not to mention the near-universal outcry of the professional economic community. In a University of Chicago poll of several dozen international economists, zero disagreed with the statement that “the incidence of the latest round of US import tariffs is likely to fall primarily on American households.”

Why do the conclusions of the CPA research directors differ so greatly from the opinions of the economic community? The authors explained, “Our results differ remarkedly from other economic modeling efforts regarding tariffs…The differences result primarily from different assumptions about how businesses and consumers react to tariffs. Other models reflect a pro-free-trade bias and assume that (a) no production returns to the US as a result of tariffs (b )prices of US imports always rise when imports move from China to third countries and (c) US consumers react very negatively to higher prices, leading to educed sales and output in the US economy. A close study of the available empirical evidence shows these assumptions are unwarranted.”

The report states:  “Our model consisted of two parts:  a partial equilibrium model, which looked at how production in China for export to the US responded to the presence of a permanent across-the-board tariff, and a general-equilibrium model, based on the widely-used REMI  economic model to explore the effects of production shifts on the US economy over a five-year forecast period.”

The report takes into consideration China’s retaliation against the tariffs and China’s moving manufacturing to the U.S. or other countries. It shows that the tariffs will encourage production relocation out of Asia and generate significant reshoring of manufacturing to the US by American manufacturers who had established plants in China. This opinion concurs with the data collected by the Reshoring Initiative for several year showing that “the location decision for manufacturers is not just about cost: reliable supply, closeness to customers, political stability, and building customer/consumer brand awareness all matter!”

The original May report went into more detail about the benefit of reshoring, stating, “The US job gains from PATB-25-induced reshoring are disproportionately concentrated in the manufacturing sector, with 192,416 additional manufacturing jobs (27 percent of total jobs created by the tariff). This is because the vast majority of US imports from China are manufactured goods. By 2024, our model forecasts that $69 billion worth of annual production will have migrated from China to the United States. While US production costs in many industries remain higher than in China, that is not the whole story. Locating production in the US offers other advantages, including lower transportation costs, more logistical flexibility, and closer connectedness to consumer markets, distributors, and senior management. Relocating in the US also insulates companies against the uncertainty of potential future trade tensions. Some industries, such as apparel, have already seen reshoring due to these advantages. A permanent tariff would speed up the process.”

In a webinar to CPA members on August 1st, Ferry cited several examples of American companies reshoring production to the US; namely, Caterpillar, Stanley Black and Decker, Hasbro, Whirlpool, Optec, and West Elm.  The website of the Reshoring Initiative lists  nearly 3,000 companies that have reshored, and the list grows by the week.  

In an interview for The Epoch Times,  Ferry said: “As time goes by, people are accepting it because they’re seeing that tariffs are not provoking huge increases or any increases in consumer prices. They’re not disrupting our supply chains”

He also said “the goal of the U.S. government is to fix these problems and to restore prosperity to the United States, and he thinks tariffs have their role to play. If the trade deficit continues, and if we want to see certain manufacturing industries grow in the United States, I think we need to do more, and tariffs on all Chinese imports is a good solution…It’s a delicate and dangerous game [the Chinese regime is] going to have to play to pivot from being an economy that’s completely dependent on exports to being a more balanced economy, and it’s anybody’s guess whether they can pull it off.”

I’m betting that the conclusions reached by CPA would prove true if President Trump did impose 25% tariffs on all imports from China because of the strong evidence of the benefit of reshoring to the US economy.  According to the Reshoring Initiative, data from the manufacturing employment low of January 20190 through 2018, 749,000 jobs have been brought back to the US from offshore. In addition, manufacturing jobs pay higher than service and retail jobs, so tax revenue will increase from more people having higher paying jobs.  Another benefit would be that as we reduce our imports, our trade deficit would go down. However, the best benefit is that as we resume making the products and systems needed to defend our country in the US, we will protect our national security.