Forcing Fair Trade with China?

May 5th, 2010

Will the Obama administration have the courage to force fair trade rules on China?  The Moneynews headline “U. S. to Force Fair Trade Rules on China” of April 13, 2010 sounds strong, but what Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner actually said in an interview before a meeting of the American Society of Newspaper Editors, didn’t sound forceful to me.

While he said, “We will be very forceful and aggressive in making sure we are promoting changes for the prospects of a level playing field in those market,” he also said that “We have an enormously productive, beneficial relationship with China today … It’s hugely important to companies large and small across the country.”

Sure, the Federal government benefits from a relationship with China because China is a large lender to the U. S. Government by buying U. S. Treasury securities to support the value of the dollar.  In February 2010, China owned $877.5 billion, which represents 33 percent of the total $2.4 trillion outstanding Treasury securities

And yes, China is important to manufacturers who have outsourced their manufacturing to China and retailers who buy “made in China” goods to sell in their stores.  But, is the U. S. Federal government’s financial dependence on China beneficial to the American manufacturing industry as a whole and to American workers?

The 2.4 million Americans who lost their jobs since 2001 as a result of the nation’s growing trade deficit, largely with China, say “NO.”   According to a report released by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), on March 23, 2010, high-tech industries are losing jobs faster than any other sector of the economy.  The computer, electronic equipment and parts industries experienced the largest growth in trade deficits with China, 26 percent of all jobs displaced by trade between 2001 and 2008.

Since China entered the World Trade organization in 2001, the U. S. trade deficit with China rose by $186 billion, from $84 billion in 2001 to $170 billion in 2008.  In 2009, China was responsible for more than 80 percent of the total United States non-oil trade deficit in goods.

California and Texas were the hardest hit for high-tech manufacturing jobs, and North Carolina was hit hard for the textile and furniture industries.  Other populous states like New York and Illinois also had major job losses.   Using data in the EPI report, the Alliance for American Manufacturing created an interactive map showing the impact by Congressional District.   Since manufacturing jobs create three to four other jobs, the real number of jobs lost is three to four times higher.  California lost 370,000 jobs, with the worst hit location being the Silicon Valley region.  Texas lost 193,700 jobs, and North Carolina lost 95,100 jobs.

The impact of the China trade deficit isn’t restricted to job loss, the report found.  Competition with low-wage workers from les-developed countries has driven down wages for workers in manufacturing and reduced the wages of workers in other industries also.

It’s time to wake up and realize that free trade isn’t free when Americans wind up destitute from losing their jobs.  Free trade with China and other Asian countries is destroying our economy and costing Americans their jobs.  The job you save by the actions you take may be your own.

“Why Hasn’t Manufacturing Upturn Led to Gain in Jobs”

April 20th, 2010

According to the Institute for Supply Management March “Report on Business, the PMI was 59.6%, an increase of 3.1% over February’s 56.5%.    Norbert J. ORWE, CPSM, chair of the Manufacturing Business Survey Committee said, “The manufacturing sector of the economy grew for the eighth consecutive month during March.  The rate of growth as indicated by the PMI is the fastest since July 2004 …The Inventories Index provided a surprise as it indicated growth for the first time following 46 months of liquidation – perhaps signaling manufacturers’ willingness to increase inventories based on expected levels of activity.”  This wasn’t just an upturn in a few industries – 17 of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth in the PMI in March.

The PMI is the Purchasing Management Index, based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide.  A PMI reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing economy is expanding and below 50% indicates that it is declining.  At the very worst of the recession, it was 32.5% in December of 2008.

While it’s good news for our economy that manufacturing has grown for eight months in a row, why has the national unemployment rate held at 9.7% for the third month in a row in March, after peaking at 10.1% in October 2009?

It’s the loss of manufacturing jobs that is keeping unemployment so high.  Too many manufacturers are sourcing all or most of their manufacturing offshore.  An upturn in their business doesn’t mean more manufacturing jobs for Americans if they aren’t producing or buying everything for their products in the United States.  Since 2001, we’ve lost 63% of the U. S. textile industry and 74% of the U. S. printed circuit board industry.  We lost 47% of communication equipment jobs and 43% of motor vehicle and parts industry jobs.

In addition, manufacturers are doing more with less; existing employees are required to work harder and longer because manufacturers aren’t hiring new people until they have more confidence that the upturn in business will continue.  Manufacturers aren’t building up inventory to fill orders – they are ordering materials, components, parts, and assemblies as needed to fill orders they receive from their customers.

The number of manufacturing jobs is a better indicator of what’s really happening in the economy than the stock market.  Many of the companies on the Dow and Standard & Poor index of the stock exchange are no longer American-owned companies.  They are companies that I call multinational globalist companies, which have no loyalty to the United States and don’t care about providing jobs for Americans.  These companies may be doing well based on their worldwide business and could post profits and have their stock prices go up without creating jobs for American workers and benefiting the U. S. economy as a whole.

We need to establish a national manufacturing policy to be able to maintain a strong manufacturing industrial base as the foundation of our economy and create the jobs our country needs.

About this Blog

April 19th, 2010

Milton Ahlerich said, “Frankly we don’t know what we don’t know.”  In the year since I published my book and have been out on the speaking circuit, I confirmed what I believed to be the case — most people don’t realize how important manufacturing is to the economy of the United States and don’t know how to “save American manufacturing.”

I also learned that many of the people who have bought my book belong to the generation that came of age in the era of the U.S. trade deficits that began in 1979 and have become accustomed to “Made in China” consumer products.   They don’t realize that American manufacturers used to produce almost all of our consumer goods prior to 1980.

I intend to write about things that most people don’t know on the subject of manufacturing and it’s importance to America’s economy.  In the age of “information overload” via TV, radio, and the Internet, it’s easy to get overwhelmed and tune out.

We live in a time where most of the news in the mainstream media is shaped and shaded by political views to drive a particular agenda.   Even a lot of Web content is skewed to a political viewpoint.

After doing research for nearly two years while writing my book, I have access to sources of information that most people don’t know about.  Since, I’ve found it impossible to stop doing research on this dear-to-my-heart topic, I want to share information I find with others through this blog

I strived to be non-partisan as I wrote my book and will strive to present the facts and express my opinions in a similar manner in my blog.  It may lean right or left sometimes, depending on the issue and available facts.

Reasonable and intelligent comments are welcome, especially those which point to Web postings, articles, and analyses of the issues.

As we all become more informed, we can play a more active role in “saving American manufacturing.”  It may be one of the best ways we can save our country from oblivion.