Second Day of CPA Conference Focuses on Tax Reform

April 13th, 2021

The second day of the CPA virtual conference held March 23-27th featured two panels: the first on the topic of “Reforming Corporate Taxation to Help Reshore Our Industries,” and the second on ”Buy American.”   In the first panel, the focus was on whether or not additional tax reform is needed by Congress to make sure that tax loopholes that currently favor multinational corporations over domestic companies will be closed.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) reduced corporate tax rates to a flat tax of 21% from a graduated tax system ranging from a low of 15% to a high of 35%.  At the time, the U. S. had the highest corporate taxes in the world after Japan had reduced their corporate tax rate to 30.86% in 2016, down from a high of 40.69% in 2010.

David Morse, CPA Tax Policy Director, moderated the panel, which began with a tribute to Bill Parks for his work on Sales Factor Apportionment. Mr. Parks is Founder and President, Northwest River Supplies and Founding Director, SalesFactor.org, “which works to advance tax policy that would level the playing field between domestic and multinational corporations, improve U.S. competitiveness in world markets, and foster the long-term health of the American economy.”

Simply stated, Sales Factor Tax Apportionment would tax U. S. and foreign multinational corporations based on their sales in the United States. In other words, the profit a company generates on its U.S. sales would be taxed. These taxes would have to be paid to do business in the U. S.  This would eliminate profit shifting to divisions in other countries or claiming residence in a country with lower or no corporate taxes in order to avoid U.S. tax obligations.

Senator Bill Crapo (R-ID) participated in the panel with a pre-recorded video in which he paid tribute to the work of Bill Parks, whose company is in his state.  He touted TCJA for reducing corporate taxes and stated that it stemmed offshoring of American manufacturing and helped reshoring.  He said that we could strengthen TCJ with legislation on Sales Factor Tax Apportionment.

Representative Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) also participated in the panel with a pre-recorded video.  Rep. Pascrell is on the Ways and Means Committee in the House, and he said that the current tax system is tilted to wealthy and large corporations at the expense of small to medium-sized businesses.  In his opinion, TCJA wasn’t tax reform, and real tax reform is needed.

Ji Prichard, who is Tax Counsel on the House Ways and Means Committee, shared that tax reform is under discussion in the committee.  President Biden’s “Build Back Better” campaign plan had a “carrot and stick” approach to reshore manufacturing – a 10% tax credit for reshoring and a 10% fine for offshoring. 

The third panelist Professor Reuven Avi-Yonah, Irwin I. Cohn Professor of Law and director of the International Tax LL.M. Program at the University of Michigan.  Professor Avi-Yonah has written extensively on the subject of taxes. He supports the Sales Factor Tax Apportionment because he believes that it will solve a major problem in the tax code:  tax avoidance by multinational corporations through profit shifting to offshore entities and reincorporating in tax haven countries. The problem with the OCED tax proposal is that it is only focused on digital transactions that would hurt American high-tech companies. He believes that SFA could be applied unilaterally.

The Buy American Panel was moderated by the Co-Chairs of the CPA Buy American Committee: Greg Owns, CEO, Sherrill Manufacturing and Liberty Tabletop, and Jim Stuber, Founder of Made in America Again and author of What if Things were Made in America Again.

Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) participated in the panel via a pre-recorded video.  She said, “Wisconsin is a state that makes things. We are #1 or #1 in manufacturing of paper, tools, and ships.  It is very important that we produce the things that keep us safe and healthy. When the pandemic started, we saw a shortage of masks, gloves and other PPE. The American Rescue Plan for COVID relief included 10 billion dollars for government purchase of essential goods under the Defense Production Act.” She also said, “The pandemic made it clear that we need country of origin labeling (COOL) for online purchases.  I appreciate CPA’s help in drafting a bill. There are lots of gaps in the Buy American policy for infrastructure. Trade deals have provisions that give foreign companies the right to bid on government procurement. There are 16 countries that can bid as if they are an American company.  But the President can waive these provisions of trade deals in emergency situations.”

Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) participated in a live video, and she said, I support country of origin labeling.  I am a lifelong rancher. We need more domestic products.  Wyoming has rare earth minerals and is an energy producing state.  Buying local and buying American grew in importance during the last year.  I think food security is a national security issue.  You can count on me as an ally on Buy American.”

Representative Claudia Tenney (R-NY) said she is the representative for the district in which Greg Owen’s company is located and also where Revere Copper is located (owned by Brian O’Shaughnessy, CPA’s Vice Chair.) She said that 94% of workers in her district work for small businesses. She also supports Buy American and country of original labeling.

The last panelist was Brad Markell, Executive Director of the AFL-CIO Industrial Labor Council.  He said, “This is the manufacturing arm of the AFL-CIO that includes the presidents of all of the unions in the manufacturing industry. The Trump Administration made great strides on Buy American. The Biden administration left these Executive Orders in place and have added two more E. O.s related to Buy American and supply chain.  Too many government agencies have waivers for Buy American. The manufacturing component of infrastructure is high for construction. Every time the federal government spends money is an opportunity to create jobs.”

The day’s session ended with closing remarks by Bill Bullard, CEO of the Ranchers Cattlemen Action Legal Fund United Stockgrowers of America (R-CALF USA).  He said, “The cattle industry is the single largest segment of U.S. agriculture generating about $65 billion in sales. There are about 729,00 farmers and ranchers in the U.S., down about a half million the past 40 years. Farmers and ranchers are scattered across the country and in nearly every county. Since 1990, we have lost 200,000 cattle ranches and millions of cattle. The U.S. underproduces cattle to supply demand and imports are increasing.  We import beef from 20 countries and about two million live cattle from Canada and Mexico each year. Since NAFTA, the amount of beef we import from Canada and Mexico has tripled, so that we’ve accumulated a $40 billion deficit. Retail prices have risen, especially since 2017, but the rancher’s share of the price has drastically dropped.  This is because there are only four meat packing plants in the U.S. and two are owned by Brazilian companies, so when you have many sellers and few buyers, the price drops.”

Bill’s proposed solution to this problem is country of origin labeling for retail sales that states where the cattle was born, raised, and slaughtered.  Imported beef that is repackaged must also reveal the country from which it is imported. This would be non-discriminatory to all countries. He also stated that “Buy American” policies for federal procurement should require that beef procured for school food programs and the military should fit the criteria of born, raised, and slaughtered in the U. S.  He urged everyone to contact their Congressional Representative and Senator to support country of original labeling for beef.  

We learned a hard less during the COVID pandemic about the dangers of being reliant on foreign countries for our pharmaceuticals and PPE. We must not allow foreign imports of beef and foreign ownership of meat packers to endanger the largest segment of agriculture products. Protecting the safety of our food production is a national security issue.

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CPA Annual Trade Conference was a Virtual Success

April 7th, 2021

The Coalition for a Prosperous America held its annual trade conference virtually for the first time on March 23 – 26, 2021. I had the pleasure of attending the annual trade conference in person six years in a row when it was held in Washington, D. C., but last year’s conference had to be canceled on short notice because of COVID shutdowns.  This year’s virtual conference was free to all CPA members and the program ran from 11 AM – 4 PM ET each day. The conference was a huge success because of the valuable content of the sessions, lack of technical glitches, and Melissa Tallman’s hard work.

On the first morning, CEO Michael Stumo and Board Chairman Zach Mottl of Atlas Tool welcomed everyone and gave an overview of the conference.  Michael Stumo outlined the following CPA’s priorities for 2021:

  • Promote reshoring of pharmaceutical and health care products
  • Fix overvalued dollar
  • Support customs enforcement vs. lawlessness
  • Create model tariff schedule to increase tariffs across the board  
  • Support decoupling from China
  • Focus on domestic production of energy, oil, gas, and renewables, such as solar
  • Continue Job Quality Index, now licensed to Bloomberg and Yahoo Business
  • Show how job quality affects minorities
  • Support reshoring of semiconductors
  • Support Country of Origin Labeling (COOL) for beef, pork, and online sales

The first session was a panel on Reshoring Healthcare, moderated by Rosemary Gibson, author of China RX.  Panelists were, Eric Edwards, Phlow Pharmaceuticals, Usman Ahmed, Nexus Pharmaceuticals, Jon Toomey, CPA Government Relations Director, and Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R-MO), pre-recorded.

Rep Hartzler said in October 2019, she and Rep. John Garamendi (D-CA) introduced H.R. 4710, the Pharmaceutical Independent Long-Term Readiness Reform Act. “The legislation requires the Department of Defense to identify the vulnerabilities faced by our country’s dependence on Chinese pharmaceuticals, and to only purchase American-made raw materials, medicines, and vaccines for the military.” While the bill wasn’t passed in the last session, they were able to get part of it into the NDAA for 2021.

Eric Edwards said he founded Phlow last year as a public benefit corporation to use advanced manufacturing technology to produce critical and essential drugs using strategic partnerships with Civica Rx, Virginia Commonwealth University’s Medicines for All Institute, and AMPAC Fine Chemicals to make chemical precursor ingredients, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), and finished dosage forms for over a dozen essential medicines to treat hospitalized patients with COVID-19-related illnesses.

He said, “In May 2020, we were awarded federal funding of $354 million for advanced manufacturing of America’s most essential medicines from BARDA, ASPR, and DHHS  [Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (), part of the office of Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services]  We now have 20 employees and will be up to 50 by mid-year, ramping up to 350 by next year when we are in full production.”

Usman Ahmed shared that Nexus was founded in 2003 by his parents in Lincolnshire, Illinois, using contract manufacturers in the United States and Europe difficult-to-manufacture, high-quality specialty and generic drugs. However, when critical drug shortages became apparent at the start of the COVID pandemic, they made plans to build their own manufacturing plant in Pleasant Prairie, WI. When the plant opens soon, they will shift some of the manufacturing in-house to make medications including those used in critical care, cardiac care and the central nervous system.

Rosemary Gibson said that the research for her book revealed that 80% of pharmaceuticals are made in China, so there is a critical need to reshore.  Last October, the FDA published a list of 227 drug and biological product essential medicines, as well as a list of 96 device medical countermeasures.

The next session was “How Can a Currency Policy Contribute to ‘Build Back Better” Industrial Strategy,” moderated by CPA board member Marc Fasteau.  Panelists were, Joe Gagnon, Senior Fellow at Peterson Institute for International Economics, Brian O’Shaungnessy, Chairman of Revere Copper, Jeff Ferry, CPA Economist, and Robert Scott, Senior Economist and Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Research at the Economic Policy Institute.

Jeff Ferry stated that the value of the U.S. dollar has gone up by 30% since 2013, and the overvalued dollar depresses our economy and increases our trade deficit. Each one-billion-dollar trade deficit costs 6,000 jobs, so our 2020 deficit of ___ cost four million jobs.  Goss capital inflows in 2020 were $40 billion. The dollar is currently overvalued by 24.6%.  If the dollar was devalued by 6%/year, it would achieve trade balance in four years and add 3.7 million jobs and add 1% to the national GDP.

Brian O’Shaughnessy said that Revere was founded by Paul Revere in 1801 so may be the oldest company in the U.S. The Revere line of cookware was sold off in 1989, so now Revere makes copper sheet, plate and strip for industrial applications.  He said, “all of our principal competitors have gone bankrupt because of overvalued dollar making it difficult to compete in the global marketplace, and foreign competition has prevented investment.”

Joe Gagnon stated that the trade deficits prove that we have an overvalue dollar, and the dollar has been overvalued for a long time.  We need to have a countervailing currency intervention to address the overvalued dollar.  Other countries are buying U.S. currency to build dollar reserves, and the U.S. could buy foreign currencies.  We could also tax foreign purchases of U. S. dollars.

Rob Scott discussed past actions to rebalance currency and said that from 2000 – 2013, foreign government currency manipulation contributed to the problem and from 2014 to the present, private investors buying dollars and other U.S. assets have added to the problem.  He said, “Action is needed now to rebalance the overvalue dollar to create good paying jobs for non-college graduates.  The simplest way is to charge a tax on net purchases of assets” as proposed by the Market Access Charge that CPA has endorsed.

The first day ended with a report by CPA Government Relations Director, Jon Toomey, giving an inside view of what to expect in 2021. Future articles will cover the rest of the conference.

The major sponsors for the conference were:  MFGgear™, The Consilio Group, IT Guidepoint, SK International, and Amodex. Other sponsors were Liberty Tabletop, MadeinAmericaAgain.org, MadeinAmerica.com and my book Rebuild Manufacturing – the key to American Prosperity.

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Are Americans Losing the “American Dream?”

March 31st, 2021

One definition of the “American Dream” is “The belief that anyone, regardless of where they were born or what class they were born into, can attain their own version of success in a society in which upward mobility is possible for everyone. The American dream is believed to be achieved through sacrifice, risk-taking, and hard work, rather than by chance.” Wikipedia states, “The American Dream is rooted in the Declaration of Independence, which proclaims that “all men are created equal” with the right to “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.” The question is:  Are we losing the “American Dream.?” 

What the “American Dream” means to me is access to a good education, ability to have a good paying job, owning a home, and living in a safe, pleasant neighborhood.  In other words, someone living the “American Dream” would be comfortably in the economic middle class in the United States.  Let’s consider what has happened in the past 50 years.

The chars below shows that the U. S. has been running a trade deficit since 1976. This means that we import more products than we sell.  In 2020, the U.S. trade deficit was $678.7 billion, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and more 42.1% of the U.S. trade deficit in goods is with China.  

Trade deficits can occur for the following reasons:

  • A country’s inability to produce some goods.
  • Better quality of some foreign goods.
  • Cheaper foreign materials.
  • Lower foreign wages.
  • Lower foreign capital costs.
  • Subsidies from foreign governments to their manufacturers.

The last four reasons have been the main reasons for our trade deficit with China.  China does not have a free-market economy; it is a controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, which uses mercantilist policies of product dumping, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, and government subsidies to take over markets in the United states.

Higher Paying Jobs Disappearing

Trade deficits can result in a loss of up to 6,000 jobs for each one billion dollars of trade deficit. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, the US has lost 77,000 manufacturing establishments (factories), and nearly six million manufacturing jobs since the peak shown below in 1980.

Percent Manufacturing Jobs in the U.S.
Year Manufacturing Jobs (Millions) Percent Manufacturing Jobs
1976 17.8 Million —
1980 18.6 Million 20.5
1990 17.3 Million 16.1
2000 17.1 Million 13.0
2010 11.5 Million 8.9
2019 12.8 Million 8.5

https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/historical/index.html

Manufacturing jobs are the foundation of the middle class and as we lose manufacturing jobs, we are losing the middle class.  As a result, median yearly wages have stagnated, only growing from $19,822 in 1985 to $51,916 in 2019, which is only a 1.21% average annual percent of change for a total 61% increase in 34 years, hardly enough to keep up with the annual rate of inflation.

In November 2019, the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI) began “to assesses job quality in the United States by measuring desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs… “job quality” means the weekly dollar-income a job generates for an employee.”  The JQI White Paper states: “The size and composition of the U.S. labor force have changed substantially over the past quarter century…The percentage of private U.S. jobs in the service-providing sectors increased steadily from approximately 55% during the years immediately following the end of World War II through the end of the Great Recession in 2009. However, the percentage has remained flat—at around 83.5%— since that point.”

As a result of creating more lower paying service and retail jobs, the average hourly wage nationwide is $11.31/hour for a yearly average pay of $22,620 compared to the yearly average base pay of $47,945 ($23.97/hour) for a manufacturing job according to Glassdoor.  However, a skilled automotive worker can make as much as $70,204 per year ($35.10/hour).

Another advantage of jobs in manufacturing is that they create more other support jobs that a retail job does. One the average, manufacturing jobs create 3 – 4 other indirect jobs, compared to less than one job for retail, but certain manufacturing jobs create more other jobs as shown below:

Industry Direct jobs Total indirect jobs
Manufacturing
Steel product manufacturing from purchased steel 1 12
Motor vehicle manufacturing 1 14
Retail
Food and beverage stores 1 0.7
General merchandise stores 1 0.7

The lack of growth in wages hasn’t been at the same rate for all income levels according to data from the Economic Policy Institute:

  Bottom 90% Top 5% Top 0.1%
Net Growth in Wages 1979- 2019 26.0% 75.1% 345.2%

Middle Class Shrinking

According to a Pew Research Center study, this stagnation of wages has caused a decrease in the percentage of Americans that are in the middle class.  In 1970, 62% of Americans were in the middle class, but only 52% of Americans were in the middle class in 2018.

Home Ownership Stable

The good news is that home ownership nationwide has been relatively stable in the past 50 years, actually increasing from 64.0% in 1970 to 67.9% in the 1st quarter of 2020 according to data from FRED.  

Why did we lose so many higher paying jobs?

I’ve written three books discussing this problem and what we can do about it, but in a nutshell, I can condense the reasons to the following major causes:

  1. Trade agreements such as NAFTA with Canada and Mexico (1994) that benefited our trading partners more than the U.S. and began the process of outsourcing jobs to other countries, primarily Mexico.
  2. Granting China Most Favored nation status in 2000 (now called Permanent Normal Trade Relations) and allowing them to become a member of the World Trade organization. This caused a mass exodus of manufacturing jobs from the U.S., either by outsourcing manufacturing to Chinese companies or American companies setting up manufacturing plants in China.
  3. Ending tariffs on imports from trading partners as part of the regulations of the World Trade Organization Agreement.
  4. Tax policies that favor multinational global corporations, allowing them to shift profits to other countries and encouraging them to outsource manufacturing jobs.

How can we create more higher paying jobs to restore the American Dream?

Since it took us nearly 30 years to get to this point, there is no simple, rapid solution. However, there are steps our government has taken and can take to accelerate restoring the American Dream:

  • Renegotiate existing trade agreements to require trading partner countries to purchase more U. S. agricultural products and energy products such as oil, gas, and renewables.
  • Maintain current tariffs and expand tariffs to other critical, essential products
  • Pass Sales Factor Tax Apportionment legislation, which would require multinational corporations to pay taxes on the profits of their sales in the U.S., discouraging profit shifting.
  • Pass Market Access Charge legislation to tax foreign entities and individual on purchase of U.S. assets; i.e., stocks, bonds, companies, and property, which would gradually balance the overvalued dollar.

These recommended policy steps have been described in more detail in past blog articles available to read at www.savingusmanufacturing.com. And, these policies were discussed at the annual trade conference held virtually on March 23-26, 2021 by the Coalition for a Prosperous America, about which I will be writing in future articles.

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Maketory Grows New Manufacturing Companies in San Diego

March 9th, 2021

It’s exciting to have a new Maker Space in southern California. Maketory is an industrial coworking facility that provides flexible fabrication and manufacturing in a 26,000 sq. ft. building in the Miramar/Mira Mesa area of San Diego, California.  Since opening in December 2019, Maketory has become a hub of creativity and innovation for inventors, innovators, and entrepreneurs as the only Maker Space south of Carlsbad in north San Diego County.

I visited Maketory on February 11th and was given a tour by Manager Shaun Kain.  He said that they offer private office suites, private work studios, on-site storage for materials and supplies, free Wi-Fi and free parking. The ground floor of the facility contains a wood shop, metal shop, welding area, prototype/assembly area, 34 private work studios, and a blacksmith shop outside the back of the building.  The second floor has a small and large conference room, an open space for meetings or training sessions, and private offices.

The wood shop contains the following equipment: a 4’ X 8’ 3-axis router, bandsaw, table, scroll, panel, and chop saws, lathes, drill presses, wide belt sander, disc, spindle and edge sanders, a 20” planer and 12” jointer.

The metal shop has 10’ X 6’ Flow waterjet, MIG and TIG welders, belt and disk grinders, manual lathe, manual and CNC mill, plate roller, shear, and tube bender, cold saw, band saw, and drill press.

The prototyping/ assembly area contains 150- and 80-watt lasers, 3D printers, and workbenches. The blacksmith shop contains 110- and 135-ton pneumatic hammers, 50-ton screw press, as well as forges, anvils and hammers.

I was also able to speak with Carlos Shteremberg, one of the founders of Maketory When I asked for background information to help understand why he established Maketory, he said, “I was born in Mexico City and moved to San Diego in 1998 and got a degree from USD in business and accounting. I worked in manufacturing and became president of Pico Digital, a communication company that provided digital TV to hotels and apartments. We were a partner with Dish Network and had a significant market share. The majority of our manufacturing was in San Diego, as well in Taiwan, Canada, and Mexico. The company was purchased in 2016 by HIG Capital, a private equity firm, but I continued as president for a while.  Then, I looked for something to do next, and we created Maketory, a facility that would be a place for coworking and small-scale manufacturing while serving as a tech and industrial incubator for the San Diego community.” 

He explained, “I learned that opening a new business is always more difficult than you expect and takes more money than you expect.  So, you have to endure some rough times, and some entrepreneurs give up. It’s also hard to transition from working in an established business to starting a new business.  We wanted to create an environment where businesses and individuals can quickly achieve success with minimal investment. Not everyone is a software developer that can work out of a home office or a traditional coworking space. There are a lot of individuals, small businesses, and entrepreneurs that have to do physical things so they need a physical operating space that isn’t cost prohibitive. Also, people don’t want to be alone so a Maker Space creates a social atmosphere.” 

In response to my question about funding to start Maketory, he said, “We are totally self-funded as a for-profit corporation when most Maker Spaces have a non-profit sponsor.  Our lowest membership is $249/month for using all of the shop space.  Private work studios and offices start at $300/month.  We require a commitment of one year for a membership agreement because we want to develop a commitment of respect for our facility and equipment. We have a professional staff of managers and instructors for the classes we provide. At Maketory you to go as fast as you want. We have some of our members that have been able to make products in only a few weeks.”

He added, “Larger existing companies can benefit from using the facilities of Maker Space to develop prototypes for new products because there are many companies that subcontract out manufacturing services and don’t have the in-house equipment to make a prototype.”

I asked if they offered classes on how to use the equipment, and he said, “Yes, our Maketory Academy provides classes for operating every machine, as well as how to design, Lean manufacturing, and robotics. Members have to pay separately for the classes they need, which range from $120 – $350, depending on the topic. We partner with LSSI and CMTC to help some members get help on subsidizing the classes. Our Maketory Academy is an aspect of our business that we see expanding into the future to service the San Diego community, including students, colleges, high schools, veterans, active military. And local entrepreneurs. The Lean training is provided by LSSI, headed up by Luis Socconini.”  I told him that I got my Lean certification from LSSI in 2014.

I asked how they were affected by the COVID pandemic that put another Maker Space, Vocademy, out of business in Riverside.  He said, “We had only been open three months, so it hurt to have to close for a few weeks.  But it gave us time to put the safety protocols required by the state in place before opening back up in May.  We now have about 160 members. Most of our members stuck with us during the shutdown, unless they had to move out of town for a personal reason or job.” 

I told him that I’ve been a board member for the San Diego Inventors Forum and give an annual presentation on how to select the right processes and sources for your new product. I offered to give the presentation in person for his members or record a video that could be watched by his members. He said that sounds like a good idea. 

In conclusion, Maker Spaces are a good idea for any community that wants to accelerate the development of manufacturing businesses in their region. After visiting Maker Spaces in several states, Maketory is one of a very few that have been started by an entrepreneur as a for-profit business. Most Make Spaces have had an economic development agency, chamber of commerce, or community college as their sponsor.  Let’s hope that more successful entrepreneurs will follow the example of Carlos Shteremberg in the future.

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American Patriot Loses Battle with Cancer

February 22nd, 2021

On Sunday evening, February 14th, Curtis Ellis passed away from a long struggle with bladder cancer at the age of 67. Curtis was a true patriot and defender of liberty, who believed in all of the greatness our country and devoted much of his life to putting American first in economic policies to benefit American workers and not just Wall Street. Curtis’ career included work as a campaign manager for state and federal elections, working for Congress as a media liaison for the New York State Senate Central Staff and held a senior staff position in the U.S. House of Representatives. He had decades of experience as a journalist, producer, writer and reporter for the New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Time magazine and other outlets, such as HuffPost and World Net Daily. He appeared on 60 Minutes, HBO, NBC, CNN, NPR, MSNBC, Fox Business and Fox News, as well as national and regional radio shows.

I had the pleasure of becoming one of his friends when in 2011, I was recruited to join the board of directors for the American Jobs Alliance (AJA).  Curtis functioned as the part-time Executive Director from 2011 – 2016 for AJA, an independent non-profit organization promoting American jobs and Buy American policies.

Den Black, President of AJA shared that he first met Curtis Ellis in 2004 in the Buffalo New York region when his good friend, Jack Davis, decided to run for Congress in the New York’s 26th District. He said, “Jack was under attack by the Chinese who were manufacturing his industrial electric furnace, silicon carbide, heating elements in China, and marketing these items in America at prices below Jack Davis’ cost. Curtis, who lived in Manhattan, became aware of Jack’s efforts to ‘take on the Chinese’ and offered to assist Jack with his fight against the Chinese unfair trade practices.

He added, “Jack Davis accepted Curtis’ offer to help on his campaign and based his campaign on the theme of ‘undoing’ the disastrous ‘Free Trade’ practices that had caused the hollowing out of American manufacturing since the 1970’s and 80’s. Curtis came to Buffalo and gave his all for the campaign, but unfortunately, Jack Davis lost the Congressional race.  Curtis resumed his life in Manhattan, but our passion to work to ‘undo’ the unfair trade agreements continued unabated, and we continued to stay in touch.”

He explained, “In late 2010, Curtis suggested that Jack Davis and I form the American Jobs Alliance as a non-profit with the mission to educate Americans about the negative impacts of the ‘Free Trade’ agreements, such as NAFTA, on American workers and families and promote Buy American and Hire American policies. We quickly learned that the ‘Free Trade is Good’ ideology was deeply imbedded in the seats of American power, including Wall Street, global manufacturing giants, and the Washington establishment. We realized that causing any real change was huge challenge in the early years; but Curtis never wavered in his single-minded pursuit of putting American workers first.  Curtis played a big role in the AJA effort to prevent the Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP) from being ratified during the Obama Administration.”

He concluded, “Subsequently, Curtis carried his passion for American workers over into the Donald Trump for President campaign, but he continued to support AJA’s work and write articles for our website.  It was his idea last year to make and sell window/bumper decals saying ‘Boycott China for Jobs, Human Rights, Peace.’ All working Americans owe a huge debt of gratitude for his steadfast, single-minded, efforts on their behalf over the decades.”

After years of interaction on the AJA board and private phone conversations, I finally got the opportunity to spend time with Curtis when I attended the annual trade conference in Washington, D. C. put on by the Coalition for a Prosperous in March of 2017. Curtis was then working as a special advisor to the Secretary of Labor as part of President Trump’s transition team after working on the presidential campaign.  He went back to work full-time as communications consultant and senior policy adviser with America First Policies after his responsibilities on the transition team were finished in September 2017. 

Another board member of AJA, Greg Autry, co-author of Death by China and former NASA White House Liaison under President Trump, wrote me the following after I notified him that Curtis had died: “I’m proud to have been able to work with Curtis Ellis for more than a decade in support of American manufacturing jobs and our nation’s future. Curtis was a tough, straight talking man of action with a heart of gold. He genuinely cared about the outcomes for workers, business owners, and those living under the boot heel of China’s authoritarian regime. In the long, hard fight over trade reform, Curtis was always there with a good idea and a supportive comment.” 

On February 15th, World Net Daily founder Joseph Farah published an eulogy, “Farewell fellow Traveler, Curtis Ellis.”  You can readd his full article here.  Farah had known Curtis from when they were both about 16 years old and were left-leaning radical revolutionaries. He reconnected with Curtis several years ago when he was working as a senior policy adviser for America First Policies. Curtis Ellis began writing a weekly exclusive column for WND in 2014, and Farah said “He will be missed.”

On Monday, February 15th, radio talk show host John Fredericks gave his own testimony on his friend Curtis Ellis in the first hour and then had their mutual friend, Steve Bannon (War Room podcasts) as a guest on his show during the second hour.  John called Curtis an “American prophet” and said “he had the greatest sense of humor. I had him on my show nearly every week for ten years, and every time I was with him, he made me laugh.”

Bannon said, “Curtis had a hand on the pulse of labor which most conservatists don’t.  He was the first guy that laid down the planks and fundamental elements of economic nationalism that truly drive the agenda. There are tens of thousands of workers going to plants and factories that have jobs because of the policies and thinking of Curtis that were put in place. He will be remembered in history. Curtis was a legendary guy in the Trump movement.  Peter Navarro and Curtis put together the whole economic program that President Trump ran on. He was critical to the 2016 campaign. He always put the American worker first. He was a deep thinker and also an activist.

In the administration, Navarro worked on the inside and Curtis stayed on the outside to work the PACs and policy institutions. He was very early on about the CCP. He understood the world economy and the globalization project, and because he was so close to labor, he understood that the globalization project was built on the backs of slave labor in China and would turn American workers and Western Europe Union into ‘Russian serfs.’ He was relentless and because he was relentless, he cut across the grain, which is why he never had support from the ‘establishment.’  He was one of the first guys to recognize that and the first to point out ‘free trade’ was a fallacy because of the mercantilist, totalitarian dictatorship in. China. He called out the Chinese Communist part, Wall Street, and the City of London.  He had a major impact on where we are.”

Michael Stumo, CEO of the Coalition for a Prosperous America, wrote me “Curtis was one of the only political campaign managers to focus upon returning jobs and industry to America. He worked as both a Democrat and a Republican because party affiliation was secondary to his values. Curtis blazed the trail that became both Make America Great Again and Build Back Better. He was one of the very talented few who could quickly transform a complicated economic topic into an easily understandable and compelling narrative that could motivate people to act. Curtis will be missed.”

Curtis had a love affair with America and believed that we have to fight to save America to create jobs and prosperity. We need to “up our game” and bring higher paying manufacturing jobs back to America.  This is the best way we can honor his memory and carry on the torch. I will continue to work to do my part by writing and speaking to honor his memory.

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American Manufacturers Require Cheap Available Energy to be Competitive

February 9th, 2021

On his very first day in office, President Biden signed an Executive Order canceling the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline. Halting work on the “pipeline in South Dakota immediately eliminated 1,000 union jobs. TC Energy, the company that was developing the project, predicts that more than 10,000 jobs will be lost in 2021 due to the order.” Only a week later, he signed an Executive Order freezing new oil or natural gas leases and drilling permits on federal land. These orders put American energy independence at risk, which will hurt American manufacturers.

Most people don’t realize that there are already thousands of miles of Keystone pipelines that have been completed.  According to Wikipedia, Phase 1 started construction in 2008 and became operational in 2010.  Phase 1 goes from Hardisty, Alberta, Candada to Wood River and Patoka, Illinois, going through Saskatchewan and Nebraska.  Phase 2 goes from Steele City, Nebraska to Cushing, Oklahoma and was completed in 2011. Phase 3 goes from Cushing, Oklahoma to Nederland, Texas and was completed in 2014. A Phase 3b goes from Liberty County, Texas to Houston, Texas and become operational in 2017.  If completed, Phase 4 would go from Hardisty, Alberta, Canada to Steele City, Nebraska, passing through Montana.  It has been under construction since 2017 after President Trump approved the permit.

Rep. Daines (R-MT) introduced an amendment attached to a COVID-19 relief bill on February 4th to reverse the Executive Order canceling Phase 4 of the Keystone Pipeline.  Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana initially voted in favor of the Republican amendment, so that it passed 52-48, but later reversed themselves and voted with other Democrats with to kill the amendment. V. P. Harris cast the deciding vote.

American manufacturing has flourished since it started in the 1790s partly because of the availability of cheap energy:  Water power was used by the first American industry, textiles. Large water wheels harnessed the flow of a river to provide the necessary power for mills to manufacture the textiles by means of a water-powered spinning frame. Stand-alone steam engines expanded the opportunities to manufacture other products at locations throughout the country in the early 1800s.  The discovery of oil in 1859 and the ability to process it into different forms of fuel for a variety of engines and motors accelerated the ability to manufacture a much wider variety of products.  These fuels were first used to power the trains and ships that transported goods all over the U.S., creating a mass domestic market for manufactured goods.  These fuels were used to power the cars, trucks, and airplanes after they were invented in the early 20th Century. These same fuels were used by companies to power the equipment and machines that manufactured vehicles and airplanes. Then, these new modes of transportation enabled American manufactures to expand their domestic markets and export products worldwide. 

With the invention of the Bunsen burner in 1885 by Robert Bunsen, vast new opportunities to use natural gas for energy were created. After “effective pipelines began to be built in the 20th century, the use of natural gas expanded to home heating and cooking, appliances such as water heaters and oven ranges, manufacturing and processing plants, and boilers to generate electricity…Because natural gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel, it is playing an increasing role in helping to attain national goals of a cleaner environment, energy security and a more competitive economy.”

Prior to pipelines, oil was transported in barrels by wagons or flat boats, and then in wooden tank cars on trains.  There was a big problem with leakage of the oil in both barrels and wooden tank cars. A pipeline made out of wooden boards built in 1862 proved equally impractical, but the “first fully successful pipeline—which used wrought iron and highly reinforced joints to transport between 1,950 and 2,000 barrels of oil daily across five miles of land—came in 1865. By the early 1900s, Standard Oil owned 80% of the pipelines.

Regarding pipelines, Wikipedia says, “Oil pipelines are made from steel or plastic tubes which are usually buried. The oil is moved through the pipelines by pump stations along the pipeline. Natural gas (and similar gaseous fuels) is pressurized into liquids known as Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs).[3] Natural gas pipelines are constructed of carbon steel…Pipelines are one of the safest ways of transporting materials as compared to road or rail…”

For as long as the oil industry has tried to move its products through pipelines, they’ve been contested. At first, it was because private companies were building and controlling the pipelines creating monopolies.  Today, it is because environmentalists want to stop the production and transportation of oil and natural gas.

According to the U. S. Department of Transportation, “The biggest source of energy is petroleum, including oil and natural gas. Together, they supply 65 percent of the energy we use. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil furnishes 40 percent of our energy, natural gas 25 percent, coal 22 percent, nuclear 8 percent, and renewables make up 4 percent…The nation’s more than 2.6 million miles of pipelines safely deliver trillions of cubic feet of natural gas and hundreds of billions of ton/miles of liquid petroleum products each year. They are essential: the volumes of energy products they move are well beyond the capacity of other forms of transportation. It would take a constant line of tanker trucks, about 750 per day, loading up and moving out every two minutes, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, to move the volume of even a modest pipeline. The railroad-equivalent of this single pipeline would be a train of 225, 28,000-gallon tank cars.”

Notice that renewables, such as solar and wind power, only provide 4 percent of our energy.  It’s going to be a long time, if ever, before they can replace the energy provided by oil and gas.  Energy experts have estimated it would take 25 – 50 times the number of power plants to provide the energy to charge electric cars when, all new cars and passenger trucks sold in California be zero-emission vehicles by 2035.

Our modern way of life depends on energy.  It takes energy to produce the food we eat, the clothes and shoes we wear, to manufacture our household furnishings and appliances, as well as all of the variety of electronic systems and equipment we use.  It takes energy to provide transportation for ourselves, as well as to transport all of the products we use by means of cars, trucks, airplanes, and ships. It takes energy to manufacture the equipment and systems used by the military to protect our country. We need Phase 4 of the Keystone Pipeline to be completed and new oil and gas leases be permitted to ensure that our American manufacturers have the energy they need to be competitive in the global marketplace. Without sufficient affordable energy, life as we know it would end.

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Biden Administration Must Maintain Tariffs on Chinese Goods

January 26th, 2021

During his campaign, Biden laid out his economic agenda for the country, called “Build Back Better, which includes a $700 billion investment in procurement and research and development for new technologies such as biotech, clean energy and artificial intelligence.”  The goal is that “the new plan will help create 5 million new jobs.”  As Vice President under President Obama, Biden advocated engagement with China, but changed his tune during the campaign, “calling Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug. ” While he repeatedly criticized “Trump’s trade and tariff war with China as being ineffective and failing to protect the US economy,” the Biden Administration must maintain the steel and aluminum tariffs order to have any hope of achieving his goal.

During his Jan. 19th confirmation hearing, Biden’s incoming secretary of state, Antony Blinken, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee: “President Trump was right in taking a tougher approach to China. I disagree very much with the way that he went about it in a number of areas, but the basic principle was the right one. And I think that that’s actually helpful to our foreign policy.”

An article in The Balance reported that the U.S. trade deficit with China was $315.1 billion in 2012, rose to $367.3 billion by 2015 before dropping to $346.8 billion the next year. By 2018, it had increased to $418.9 billion, before falling to $345.2 billion in 2019.”

The big drop was partly due to the 25% tariff on steel imports that President Trump enacted on top of a 10% tariff previously leveraged on aluminum. The tariffs went into effect on July 6, 2018, impacting $34 billion worth of Chinese imports.

The article reported that “The U.S. trade deficit with China for 2020 was $283.6 billion as of November of that year. That’s 18% less than 2019’s $345.2 billion deficit.”

The article explained that “The trade deficit exists because U.S. exports to China were only $110 billion while imports from China were $393.6 billion. The biggest categories of U.S. imports from China are typically computers; cell phones; apparel; and toys, games, and sporting goods.2?? A lot of these imports are from U.S. manufacturers that send raw materials to China for low-cost assembly. Once shipped back to the United States, they are considered imports.” 

In the same vein, Reuters reported that the U. S. trade deficit narrowed in 2019 for the first time in six years, stating “At the height of the U.S.-China trade war last year, Washington slapped tariffs on billions worth of Chinese goods, including consumer products, thumping imports. The politically sensitive goods trade deficit with China plunged 17.6% to $345.6 billion in 2019 “

On November 17, 2020, IndustryWeek published an opinion article by Jeff Ferry, chief economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America.  Ferry wrote “it’s clear that the Trump administration’s steel tariffs have generated a boom in steel investment and a shift to newer technologies that are creating high-paying jobs for thousands of new steelworkers…The steel tariffs have succeeded by reducing the level of these imports in the U.S. This has allowed domestic steel producers to make needed investments while taking the industry forward with confidence.”  He cited that “U.S. Steel Corporation produced the first ton of steel at a brand-new facility in Fairfield, Alabama, “Nucor Steel has started building a new steel plate mill in Brandenburg, Kentucky, that will employ 400 workers at an average annual salary of $72,800,” and “Commercial Metals Company announced plans to build a second rebar steel mill in Mesa, Arizona, that will employ 185 workers.”

He noted that “With steel imports down, America’s steelmakers have started investing at home. In addition to Nucor and US Steel, companies like Cleveland-Cliffs, Steel Dynamics, CMC, and AK Steel have invested billions of dollars in at least 16 major new projects throughout the nation. The top five US steel companies more than doubled their total annual investments between 2017 to 2019, from $1.5 billion to $4.2 billion.”

It’s been great that the 25% tariffs on steel have saved our critical American steel industry, but the tariffs have not been high enough to benefit most of the manufacturers in the parts producing domestic supply chain.  As a sales representative for American manufacturers that produce molded and other fabricated mechanical parts, we sometimes get feedback on quotes we lose showing that we would need tariffs of between 200 – 300% to be able to compete with Chinese prices, especially for molded rubber and plastic parts.  Sometimes, the finished part price is less than or equal to the prices for the material used to make these parts. Our industry would love for tariffs to be higher and across the board on all products produced in China and imported to the U.S.

As I wrote in my last article of 2020, tariffs have helped manufacturers return to the U.S. through reshoring.  We gained business in 2019 and 2020 from companies returning metal fabrication from China to the U.S. 

In an article on January 22, 2021, “Biden’s Team Could Be as Hawkish on China as Trump’s, Kenneth Rapoza, CPA Industry Analyst, wrote: “The Trump Administration got China right. It set the table on China going forward, changing the age-old establishment centerpiece of waiting for allies to okay things following one diplomatic meeting after the next. Lighthizer, Peter Navarro, Wilbur Ross and Trump himself took action, and showed that tariffs on China do not mean prices will rise across the board. The stock market didn’t collapse because of the trade war. There seems to be good momentum on China.”

I urge the Biden Administration to keep up the momentum on reducing our trade deficit with China and increasing higher-paying manufacturing jobs by maintaining or expanding tariffs on Chinese imported goods. To appease his “Green Deal” followers, he could call the tariffs “Greenhouse Gas Emission fees” because China’s manufacturers depend on polluting coal-fired power plants due to lack of environmental regulations like we have in the U.S. Many American power plants use cleaner-burning natural gas.  The welfare of our economy and our national security depend on using every tactic we have available to thwart China’s goal of becoming the world’s superpower of the 21st Century.

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Reshoring of Manufacturing Increases in 2020

December 23rd, 2020

The United States gradually lost manufacturing jobs from the peak of 19.5 million in 1979 to 17.3 million by early 2000.  However, after China was granted Most Favored Nation status that year, the loss of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. accelerated dramatically as American manufacturers moved manufacturing offshore and cheaper Chinese goods drove U.S. manufacturers out of business. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we lost 5.8 million manufacturing jobs from the middle of the year 2000 to the middle of 2010.  Fortunately, we have been slowly regaining manufacturing jobs since 2010 thanks to a great extent to the efforts of the Reshoring Initiative.

In April 2010, the Reshoring Initiative was founded by Harry Moser, retired president of GF AgieCharmilles LLC, a leading machine tool supplier in Lincolnshire, Illinois.to facilitate returning manufacturing to America from offshore by providing the right tool at the right time to with the creation of the Total Cost of OwnershipTM  worksheet calculator spreadsheet. To help companies make better sourcing decisions, the Reshoring Initiative provides the Total Cost of OwnershipTM  spreadsheet for free to help manufacturers calculate the real impact offshoring has on their bottom line. The website provides an online library of more than 7,000 articles about cases of successful reshoring.

The brief definition of TCO is an estimate of the direct and indirect costs related to the purchase of a part, sub-assembly, assembly, or product. However, a thorough TCO includes much more than the purchase price of the goods paid to the supplier. For the purchase of manufactured goods, it should also include all of the other factors associated with the purchase of the goods, such as:  geographical location, transportation alternatives, inventory costs and control, quality control, as well as reserve capacity, responsiveness, and technological depth of the vendor.

Mr. Moser’s TCO spreadsheet includes calculations for the hidden costs of doing business offshore, such as Intellectual Property theft, danger of counterfeit parts, the risk factors of political instability, natural disasters, riots, strikes, technological depth and reserve capacity of suppliers, and currency fluctuation as well as effect on innovation, product liability risk, annual wage inflation, and currency appreciation.

Previous studies have shown that about 60% of companies made the decision to offshore based on comparing wage rates, FOB prices or landed costs, while ignoring the hidden costs and risk factors. Thanks to the Reshoring Initiative’s TCO worksheet, companies are becoming familiar with the broad range of factors they had previously ignored. The reasons that thousands of other companies have given for reshoring in the Reshoring Initiatives library of cases helps companies to determine whether those reasons are applicable to them.

According to the annual report released on December 7, 2020 by the Reshoring Initiative, “The projected job announcements for 2020 is 110,000, which will bring the total to over 1 million by year’s end…The combined reshoring and foreign direct investment (FDI) announcements in 2019 totaled more than 117,000 manufacturing jobs, plus an additional 24,800 in revisions to the years 2010 through 2018…Additionally, the number of companies reporting new reshoring and FDI was at the second highest annual level in history:  1,100 companies.”

Jobs Announced, Reshoring and FDI, Cumulative 2010-2019

The report states: “Only products that have been offshored/imported can be reshored. Thus, the products least suitable for offshoring never left, such as heavy, high volume minerals, high mix/low volume items or customized automation systems.

The most active reshoring is by those that left and probably should not have done so, including machinery, transportation equipment and appliances. As the data indicates, reshoring is focused on products whose size and weight, e.g., transportation equipment, or frequency of design change/volatility of demand, e.g., some apparel, suggest that offshoring never offered great total cost savings.”

The term “FDI” means “Foreign Direct Investment” and refers to foreign companies that are investing in manufacturing plants in the U.S. to produce products closer to their major market of the U.S.  Plants established by Japanese companies such as Toyota and Nissan, and plants established by German-owned BMW are examples of foreign investment.

However, we still have a long way to go as the report states: “When measured by our trade deficit of about $500 billion/year, there are still three to four million U.S. manufacturing jobs offshore at current levels of U.S. productivity, representing a huge potential for U.S. economic growth.”

The report states, “Companies have consistently reported Positive Factors more often than Negative, probably because the companies place more value on demonstrating the wisdom of their current reshoring decision than on what went wrong with their earlier offshoring decision. “

The top ten positive factors that influenced a reshoring decision are:

  1. Proximity to customers/market
  2. Government Incentives
  3. Eco-system synergies/Supply chin optimization
  4. Skilled workforce availability/training
  5. Image/brand
  6. Infrastructure
  7. Impact on domestic economy
  8. Lead time/time to market
  9. Automation Technology
  10. Customer responsiveness improvement

The top ten negative factors influencing the decision to reshore are:

  1. Quality/rework/warranty
  2. Freight cost
  3. Total Cost
  4. Delivery
  5. Rising Wages
  6. Inventory
  7. Supply chain interruption/Natural disaster risk/Political instability
  8. Green considerations
  9. Intellectual Property Risk
  10. Communications

The report states that the top industries that are reshoring or benefitting from FDI are:

  • Transportation Equipment
  • Computer & Electronic Products
  • Electrical Equ8ipment, Appliances & Components
  • Chemicals
  • Plastic & Rubber Products
  • Wood & Paper Products
  • Apparel & Textiles
  • Fabricated Metal Products
  • Machinery

It’s not surprising that China ranks number one as the country from which companies are reshoring, with Mexico, Canada, India, and Japan filling out the top five.  The top countries that are investing in manufacturing sites in the U.S. are: Germany, China, Japan, Canada, and Korea. 

The authors note that “The South and Midwest continue to dominate cumulatively. The Midwest and Texas dominate reshoring and the South dominates FDI.” It was surprising to me that Michigan and New York were in the top five states for the number of jobs that were reshored, as they are not states where the cost of business is low. However, Texas ranked highest for both number of jobs announced and the highest number of companies reshoring.

The report authors state, “We believe the continued strength of the trends thru the end of 2019 is largely based on greater U.S. competitiveness due to corporate tax and regulatory cuts and increased recognition of the total cost of offshoring.”

It was interesting to note the impact of the COVID Pandemic on reshoring.  The authors report: “The COVID Pandemic has increased in interest in reshoring as “Two in three (69%) manufacturing companies are looking into bringing production to North America (compared to 54% in February).”

In addition, “Repeated surveys show that more companies, driven by the virus crisis, have decided to reshore. We expect to see the data respond to this shift in 2021. Also due to the pandemic, we are seeing U.S. reshoring outpacing FDI for the first time since 2014…The national demand to shorten and close supply chain gaps for essential products to make the U.S. less vulnerable is most likely to benefit the following industries: PPE, medical, tech, and defense. Already, 60% of cases after March mention the pandemic as a factor in reshoring decisions. Medical equipment and PPE are the first responders of new reshoring with cases already double from last year.”

In conclusion, the authors state: “The revised rate of reshoring plus FDI job announcements in 2019 was up about 2000% from 2010. The 600,000+ jobs brought back represent about 5% of U.S. manufacturing employment. The acceleration of jobs coming back combined with the decline in the rate of offshoring has resulted in a plateauing of the goods trade deficit at about $800 billion/year. The COVID crisis has revealed the U.S.’s over-dependence on imports.

This data should motivate companies to further reevaluate their sourcing and siting decisions by considering all of the cost, risk and strategic impacts flowing from those decisions. Policy makers can use the continued reshoring successes as proof that it is feasible to bring millions of jobs back.”

Government policies do have an influence on reshoring and FDI. If the next administration reverses the corporate tax and regulatory cuts, it could have an adverse effect on the reshoring trend.

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It’s Time to End China’s Most Favored Nation Status

December 1st, 2020

China was granted Most Favored Nation status through presidential proclamation on an annual basis from 1980 – 1998. This was because the Trade Act of 1974 stated that “MFN status may not be conferred on a country with a nonmarket economy if that country maintains restrictive emigration policies” China was, and still is, a nonmarket economy and restricted emigration, but the Act allowed the president to “waive this prohibition on an annual basis if he certifies that granting MFN status would promote freedom of emigration in that country.”

According to CRS Report 98-603 for Congress, “China’s Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) Status:  Congressional Consideration, 1989-1998:” After the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, there was enough opposition to granting MFN status to China that the “House passed joint resolutions disapproving MFN for China in both 1991 and 1992,” but the Senate didn’t pass the joint resolution. However, the real focus of the debate was not whether to deny MFN status for China altogether, but whether or not to “place new human rights conditions on China’s MFN eligibility.” Congress passed legislation in 1991 and 1992 that would have placed further conditions on China’s MFN status, but President Bush vetoed the legislation.

In 1993, President Clinton announced he would link China’s MFN status to human rights progress beginning in 1994. However, President Clinton reneged on his campaign promise and reversed himself:  “On June 2, 1995, President Clinton transmitted to Congress his intention to waive the emigration prohibition and extend MFN status to the People’s Republic of China for an additional year, beginning July 3, 1995.”

An L.A. Times article of May 27, 1994, reported: “President Clinton, abandoning a central foreign policy principle of his Administration, announced Thursday that he has decided to “de-link” China’s privileged trading status from its human rights record. While acknowledging that China “continues to commit very serious human rights abuses,” Clinton said that he has come to believe that broader American strategic interests justify the policy reversal.” 

The annual granting of MFN status to China by a presidential waiver continued through 1998. Note that “On July 22, 1998, legislation was enacted which replaced the term “most-favored-nation” in certain U.S. statutes with the term “normal trade relations.”  This made it easier for Congress to make the fateful decision to extend “permanent normal trade relations,” or PNTR, to China when the Senate voted to give China permanent most-favored-nation status on September 19, 2000. This vote paved the way for China’s accession to the World Trade Organization.

As Reihan Salam, President of the Manhattan Institute wrote in an article titled “Normalizing Trade Relations With China Was a Mistake,” in the June 8, 2018 issue of The Atlantic, “PNTR was a euphemism designed to get around the fact that the traditional term for “normal trade relations” was “most-favored-nation” (MFN) tariff status…MFN status meant imports would be treated as favorably as those arriving from “the most favored nation.” Absurd as it might sound, this linguistic convention had meaningful political consequences. To argue that we ought to have normal trade relations with China was one thing. Sure, why not? To make the case that China ought to be treated as our most favored nation was a more vexing PR challenge, not least in the wake of the brutal crackdown that followed the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.”

An article in the American Economic Review, “The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment,” byJustin R. Pierce and Peter K. Schott, July 7, 2016, states: “The permanence of PNTR status made an enormous difference: Without PNTR, there was always a danger that China’s favorable access to the U.S. market would be revoked, which in turn deterred U.S. firms from increasing their reliance on Chinese suppliers. With PNTR in hand, the floodgates of investment were opened, and U.S. multinationals worked hand-in-glove with Beijing to create new China-centric supply chains.” 

This change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports resulted in industries that were more vulnerable to the change experiencing greater employment loss, increased imports from China, and higher entry into the U.S. market by U.S. importers and foreign-owned Chinese exporters. My three books and the hundreds of articles I’ve written since 2009 have described what has happened to U.S. manufacturing since 2001. Besides the loss of 5.8 million manufacturing jobs and the closure of an estimated 67,000 American manufacturers, American manufacturing shifted toward more high-tech, less labor-intensive production. However, as China upgraded their technology in the past few years, we started losing our high-tech manufacturing also.

In addition to the annual reports to Congress by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission documenting China’s violation of World Trade Organization rules along with human rights violations, the U.S. Department of State submits an annual report on International Religious Freedom in accordance with the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998. According to the 2018 International Religious Freedom Report : “Multiple media and NGOs estimated the government detained at least 800,000 and up to possibly more than 2 million Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs, and members of other Muslim groups, mostly Chinese citizens, in specially built or converted detention facilities in Xinjiang and subjected them to forced disappearance, torture, physical abuse, and prolonged detention without trial because of their religion and ethnicity since April 2017.  There were reports of deaths among detainees.  Authorities maintained extensive and invasive security and surveillance, in part to gain information regarding individuals’ religious adherence and practices.” 

Therefore, it gave me great pleasure when I read that on September 17, 2020, Senator Tom Cotton (R-Arkansas) introduced a bill (S.4609) that “would strip China of its permanent most-favored-nation status—also known as Permanent Normal Trade Relations—a designation it has held for the last twenty years. If passed, the legislation would make extending most-favored-nation status to China an annual decision for Congress and the president.”

Cotton said, “Twenty years ago this week, the Senate gave a gift to the Chinese Communist Party by granting it permanent most-favored-nation status. That disastrous decision made the Party richer, but cost millions of American jobs. It’s time to protect American workers and take back our leverage over Beijing by withdrawing China’s permanent trade status.”

Senator Cotton’s press release states: “The China Trade Relations Act would revoke China’s permanent most-favored-nation status and return to the pre-2001 status quo, whereby China’s MFN status must be renewed each year by presidential decision. Congress could override the president’s extension of MFN by passing a joint resolution of disapproval.

The bill also would expand the list of human-rights and trade abuses under the Jackson-Vanik Amendment that would disqualify China for MFN status, absent a presidential waiver. The abuses that would make China ineligible for MFN status, absent a presidential waiver, are as follows:

  • Uses or provides for the use of slave labor;
  • Operates ‘vocational training and education centers’ or other concentration camps where people are held against their will;
  • Performs or otherwise orders forced abortion or sterilization procedures;
  • Harvests the organs of prisoners without their consent;
  • Hinders the free exercise of religion;
  • Intimidates or harasses nationals of the People’s Republic of China living outside the People’s Republic of China; or
  • Engages in systematic economic espionage against the United States, including theft of the intellectual property of United States persons”

China’s strategic goal is to dominate the sectors of economic growth that historically have held the key to world power:  transportation energy, information, and manufacturing. Their “Made in China 2025” plan is designed to dominate key technology sectors such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, hypersonic missiles, and 5G. They also plan to become the dominant power in space by 2049.

If this bill isn’t passed in the Lame Duck session, I strongly urge that it be reintroduced into the next Congress and passed unanimously next year. It’s time China for us to stop treating China as a friend and recognize China as the enemy to our national sovereignty it is.

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U.S. Must Face up to the China Threat

November 18th, 2020

Over the past ten years that I have been writing blog articles, one of my reoccurring themes has been the danger posed to the U.S. by China because of their predatory mercantilism through product dumping, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, and government subsidies. More recently, I have written about China’s written plan to become the superpower of the 21st Century through a combination of economic coercion, industrial espionage, and the buildup of their military.

In this article, I want to share some of the points made in the September 2020 issue of Imprimis, published by Hillsdale College. The article was “adapted from a speech delivered on September 29, 2020, in Rapid City, South Dakota, at a Hillsdale College National Leadership Seminar,”by Brian T. Kennedy, “president of the American Strategy Group, chairman of the Committee for the Present Danger: China, and a board member and senior fellow of the Claremont Institute.”

Kennedy catches your attention immediately saying, “We are at risk of losing a war today because too few of us know that we are engaged with an enemy, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), that means to destroy us. The forces of globalism that have dominated our government (until recently) and our media for the better part of half a century have blinded too many Americans to the threat we face. If we do not wake up to the danger soon, we will find ourselves helpless.”

He points out that our relationship is based on two beliefs initiated during the Cold War: “President Nixon’s strategic belief that China could serve as a counterweight to the Soviet Union” and “economic liberalism would lead to political liberalism, and China’s communist dictatorship would fade away.” History has shown that these two beliefs were false and “America’s China policy from the 1970s until recently was very costly because it involved a great deal of self-deception about the nature of the Chinese regime and the men who were running it.”

He comments that after the Cold War, “pursuing the China dream appeared a safe course of action, given that the U.S. was then the world’s preeminent military power.” During the last year of the Clinton administration, “China was granted “Most Favored Nation” trading status and membership in the World Trade Organization.” We know the disastrous consequences of this action:  the lost of over 5 million good paying manufacturing jobs between 2001 – 2010 and the closure of some 67,000 manufacturers.

Under the subsequent Bush and Obama administrations, “the U.S. failed to build a military that could challenge Communist China’s aggression in the Pacific—specifically its building of a modern navy and its construction of military installations on artificial islands in the South China Sea—and acquiesced in the export of much of the U.S. manufacturing base to China and elsewhere.”

He explains that China’s 1.4 billion population is “governed by the Chinese Communist Party, which has 90 million members, and by an elite class of approximately 300 million additional Chinese who are deeply invested in the regime’s success…The system benefits these elites, whose businesses, mostly state-owned enterprises, are privately run with active participation by the CCP. Once a business reaches a certain size, it will take on board a cadre of party members who serve as a direct liaison between the business and the government.”

He goes on to explain that “the CCP operates a massive global intelligence network through its Ministry of State Security. This network does its part to assist Chinese business and industry through industrial espionage, cyber warfare, and economic coercion.”

With regard to China’s military buildup, he states that China “has a military of two million men, including the world’s largest navy. This military may not be qualitatively on par with the U.S. military, but quantity has a quality of its own. In the last five years of U.S. naval war game simulations, in which the U.S. is pitted against China, the U.S. has failed to come out victorious. We do not have enough ships and munitions to defeat China’s navy absent the use of nuclear weapons… “As for China’s air force, it possesses and is building today advanced fighter aircraft that rival anything the U.S has built. They may not yet have the quantity, but that will come with time.”

Next, he mentions the book, “Unrestricted Warfare, written in 1999 by two People’s Liberation Army colonels. It argues that war between the PRC and the U.S. is inevitable, and that when it occurs China must be prepared to use whatever means are necessary to achieve victory. This includes economic warfare, cyber warfare, information warfare, political warfare, terrorism, and biological warfare, in addition to conventional and nuclear warfare. The book’s purpose was not only to shape Chinese policy, but also to plant the idea in the minds of U.S. policymakers that China will consider nothing out of bounds.”

He comments that “In thinking about the implications of the word unrestricted, it is useful to look at the CCP’s treatment of its own people. Estimates put the number of those killed at the hands of the CCP—whether through war, starvation, or execution—at roughly 100 million…. And these numbers do not even take into account the forced abortions stemming from China’s one-child policy. That number is conservatively estimated to be 500 million—500 million children murdered in the womb.”

He reminds us of “CCP’s imprisonment in concentration camps of one to two million Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang province. Fewer of us are aware of how the Chinese government facilitates the abduction of Uyghur women for sexual use by Chinese soldiers—or even worse, if that were possible, how the government harvests the organs of the Uyghur population for sale both in China and abroad.”

Next, he states that “The CCP operates a vast intelligence network in the U.S as well. It is made up not merely of intelligence operatives working for the Ministry of State Security, but also a myriad of business and industry officials, Chinese scholar associations, Confucius Institutes operating on American campuses, and 370,000 Chinese students attending American universities.…It should not be surprising that a combination of the efforts of this network and of China-based cyber criminals yields $500 to $600 billion of intellectual property theft annually.”

Of particular importance to me is his comment that “Perhaps the greatest threat to the U.S. posed by the CCP is its corruption of America’s business and financial elites, who view the economic benefits of dealing with China as more important than America’s national interests. If there is a single group committed to the globalist project and the delusory China dream, it is Wall Street. Our great investment banks are now selling trillions of dollars in debt and equity in Chinese corporations to American investors and retirees. They are literally betting on the success of China at the expense of the U.S.”

I’ve long written about how American companies have put short term profits before their loyalty to America by transferring so much of their manufacturing to China. As a result, we have decimated our middle class as manufacturing jobs are the foundation of the middle class.

He concludes saying, “Americans are not looking for war with Communist China, but Communist China appears to be at war with us. As a first order of business, we must continue what we have at long last begun: building a military designed to deter Chinese aggression and pursuing trade and other policies that put our own national interests first.

Equally important—especially given the violence in our cities that our foreign enemies cheer—is defending our American way of life and teaching our countrymen why America deserves our love and devotion, now and in the days ahead.”

It’s past time to wake up.  It’s time for action. The next administration must make putting American first if we want to remain a free democratic republic and maintain our national sovereignty.

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